Whether weather causes contention: assessing the ongoing resilience opportunity of telecommuting

The Covid-19 pandemic resulted in an unprecedented overnight explosion in telecommuting. It has highlighted a new dependence on digital infrastructures and raised new questions regarding the resilience of internet connectivity as an alternative to travel. Pre-pandemic, we considered how telecommuting could offer an opportunity for resilience when travel was disrupted by weather extremes. We analysed five years’ of recorded broadband speed variation across England and Wales in order to quantify the changing demand for internet access during the working day under adverse weather conditions. Slower broadband speeds, also known as contention, are an indication of increased demand. Thus, during the working day, contention is an indication that external factors like weather can influence the choice to telecommute instead of travel. A multilevel regression model is estimated to investigate the relationship between contention during the working day and weather, whilst controlling for background spatial and demographic differences in internet services. Emergent patterns suggest that even before the pandemic, online connectivity was in greater demand when travel was disrupted or at risk of disruption. Our research provides insights into the roles that both the supply of and the demand for transport and digital technologies might play in increasing resilience and maintaining productivity during severe weather and other disruptions as experience of both types of working has become so widespread.