Track geometry prediction using three-dimensional recurrent neural network-based models cross-functionally co-simulated with BIM

Railway track maintenance plays an important role in enabling safe, reliable, and seamless train operations and passenger comfort. Due to the increasing rail transportation, rolling stocks tend to run faster and the load tends to increase continuously. As a result, the track deteriorates quicker, and maintenance needs to be performed more frequently. However, more frequent maintenance activities do not guarantee a better overall performance of the railway system. It is crucial for rail infrastructure managers to optimize predictive and preventative maintenance. This study is the world’s first to develop deep machine learning models using three-dimensional recurrent neural network-based co-simulation models to predict track geometry parameters in the next year. Different recurrent neural network-based techniques are used to develop predictive models. In addition, a building information modeling (BIM) model is developed to integrate and cross-functionally co-simulate the track geometry measurement with the prediction for predictive and preventative maintenance purposes. From the study, the developed BIM models can be used to exchange information for predictive maintenance. Machine learning models provide the average R2 of 0.95 and the average mean absolute error of 0.56 mm. The insightful breakthrough demonstrates the potential of machine learning and BIM for predictive maintenance, which can promote the safety and cost effectiveness of railway maintenance.