Mechanistic neutral models show that sampling biases drive the apparent explosion of early tetrapod diversity

Emma Dunne*, Samuel Thompson, Richard Butler, James Rosindell, Roger Close

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

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Abstract

Estimates of deep-time biodiversity typically rely on statistical methods to mitigate the impacts of sampling biases in the fossil record. However, these methods are limited by the spatial and temporal scale of the underlying data. Here, we use a spatially explicit mechanistic model, based on neutral theory, to test hypotheses of early tetrapod diversity change during the late Carboniferous and early Permian, critical intervals for the diversification of vertebrate life on land. Our simulations suggest that apparent increases in early tetrapod diversity were not driven by local endemism following the ‘Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse’. Instead, changes in face-value diversity can be explained by variation in sampling intensity through time. Our results further demonstrate the importance of accounting for sampling biases in analyses of the fossil record and highlight the vast potential of mechanistic models, including neutral models, for testing hypotheses in palaeobiology.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1480-1489
Number of pages10
JournalNature Ecology and Evolution
Volume7
Issue number9
Early online date27 Jul 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2023

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