Using Scenario-Based Elicitation in Analysis of Uncertainty in a Transport Infrastructure Project

Pete Sykes*, Margaret Bell, Dilum Dissanayake

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)


This research devised and demonstrated a method to identify the uncertainties evident in transport infrastructure planning, focussing on the early decision making stages of the project lifecycle. The core of the method used a "Cross Impact" model, anchored in complexity theory to analyse expert opinions on the future for the project. Stakeholder interviews, based around an ideal scenario, were undertaken to elicit opinions about the proposed development, focusing on the decision making steps and environment en-route to the outcome. The interviews were then coded using qualitative data analysis techniques and the emerging variables analysed using the cross impact model. The findings from this case study were that executive leadership and collaboration between Local Authorities were the most influential determinants for progress, and that the prime causes of uncertainty were the extant economic and planning policies. Since the completion of this study, structural transport governance developments have occurred in the UK that have endorsed these findings. This paper focusses on coding of the stakeholder interviews and rationalising the variables which were either present in the scenario or introduced by the stakeholders.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)963-970
Number of pages8
JournalTransportation Research Procedia
Publication statusPublished - 2020
Event2019 Transport Infrastructure and Systems in a Changing World. Towards a more Sustainable, Reliable and Smarter Mobility, TIS Roma 2019 - Rome, Italy
Duration: 23 Sept 201924 Sept 2019

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Author(s).


  • Governance
  • Scenario Analysis
  • Stakeholder Elicitation
  • Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Transportation


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