Abstract
This research devised and demonstrated a method to identify the uncertainties evident in transport infrastructure planning, focussing on the early decision making stages of the project lifecycle. The core of the method used a "Cross Impact" model, anchored in complexity theory to analyse expert opinions on the future for the project. Stakeholder interviews, based around an ideal scenario, were undertaken to elicit opinions about the proposed development, focusing on the decision making steps and environment en-route to the outcome. The interviews were then coded using qualitative data analysis techniques and the emerging variables analysed using the cross impact model. The findings from this case study were that executive leadership and collaboration between Local Authorities were the most influential determinants for progress, and that the prime causes of uncertainty were the extant economic and planning policies. Since the completion of this study, structural transport governance developments have occurred in the UK that have endorsed these findings. This paper focusses on coding of the stakeholder interviews and rationalising the variables which were either present in the scenario or introduced by the stakeholders.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 963-970 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Journal | Transportation Research Procedia |
Volume | 45 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2020 |
Event | 2019 Transport Infrastructure and Systems in a Changing World. Towards a more Sustainable, Reliable and Smarter Mobility, TIS Roma 2019 - Rome, Italy Duration: 23 Sept 2019 → 24 Sept 2019 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© 2020 The Author(s).
Keywords
- Governance
- Scenario Analysis
- Stakeholder Elicitation
- Uncertainty
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Transportation