Trends, Drivers, and Mitigation of CO₂ Emissions in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is a national initiative aimed at building a world-class city cluster in China and whose trends, socioeconomic drivers of CO₂ emissions, and mitigation pathways are of great significance to the high-quality regional economic development. This study compiled the CO₂ emission inventories of the GBA from 2000 to 2019 and explored the key drivers of CO₂ emissions using the logarithmic mean Divisia index method. The results showed that CO₂ emissions in GBA slowed significantly after 2017 and have already been decoupled from gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Economic growth and energy intensity are the major factors driving and inhibiting the increase in GBA's CO₂ emissions, respectively. The energy production and heavy manufacturing sectors have reduced their roles in driving the growth of GBA's CO₂ emissions. GBA achieved remarkable results in low-carbon development through industrial restructuring and upgrading. Industrial upgrades in Shenzhen and Hong Kong and technological advances in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Foshan have significantly curbed the growth in the GBA's CO₂ emissions. The heterogeneity of cities in the GBA greatly increases the complexity of formalizing the allocation of emission reduction tasks and developing a roadmap for regional carbon neutrality. Graded emission reduction strategies and carbon peaking and neutrality policy recommendations for GBA cities are proposed. This study provides a scientific basis for the development of an action program for carbon peaking and neutrality in GBA cities and low-carbon development plans for other cities and regions.