The Commonwealth: a panacea for the UK’s post-Brexit trade ills?

The central tenet of this article is that geography is the dominant factor in determining trade flows. British accession to the EEC in 1973 did not cause a discernible break in export trends already visible. As a complement to the existing literature on prospects for post-Brexit trade, we consider in-depth case-studies to ascertain the extent to which a reorientation of UK trade flows towards the Commonwealth might be feasible. We consider Nigeria and India as representatives of fast-growing economies with large populations in addition to Australia and Canada as examples of more mature economies. In each case, substantial barriers towards a substantive improvement in export conditions remain. We find that plans to ‘replace’ EU trade with that from the Commonwealth are problematic. As such, this article seeks to deepen our practical understanding of barriers to trade and explain why, ultimately, geography trumps history in determining British trade flows and will continue to do so, irrespective of the UK’s future relationship with the EU.