Statistical modelling of the coupled F-region ionosphere-thermosphere at high latitude during polar darkness

Statistical models have been developed for predicting the behavior of the coupled high-latitude ionosphere-thermosphere system. The modeled parameters were the F-layer peak electron density, plasma structuring, ion temperature, neutral temperature, and the difference between these temperatures, which is a key term in the Joule heating equation. Ionospheric measurements from the European Incoherent Scatter Svalbard Radar and neutral atmosphere measurements from the colocated University College London Fabry-Perot Interferometers have been made across a solar cycle. These data were all acquired during nighttime conditions as the observations with the Fabry-Perot Interferometers are restricted to such times. Various geophysical proxies were tested to represent the processes that influence the modeled parameters. The dominant geophysical proxy for each modeled parameter was then determined. Multivariate models were also developed showing the combinations of parameters that best explained the observed variability. A comparison with climatology showed that the models give an improvement in every case with skill scores based on the mean square error of up to 0.88.