Precision tracking of massive black hole spin evolution with LISA

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will play a vital role in constraining the origin and evolution of massive black holes throughout the Universe. In this study we use a waveform model (IMRPhenomXPHM) that includes both precession and higher multipoles, and full Bayesian inference to explore the accuracy to which LISA can constrain the binary parameters. We demonstrate that LISA will be able to track the evolution of the spins -- magnitude and orientation -- to percent accuracy, providing crucial information on the dynamics and evolution of massive black hole binaries and the galactic environment in which the merger takes place. Such accurate spin-tracking further allows LISA to measure the recoil velocity of the remnant black hole to better than 100kms−1 (90\% credibility) and its direction to a few degrees, which provides additional important astrophysical information on the post-merger association. Using a systematic suite of binaries, we showcase that the component masses will be measurable at the sub-percent level, the sky area can be constrained to within ΔΩ90≈0.01deg2, and the binary redshift to less than 0.01.