Older British migrants in Spain: Return patterns and intentions post‐Brexit

After the Brexit referendum results, there may have been fears that a significant part of the British population in Spain, one of the largest outside the Commonwealth, would return to the United Kingdom. This paper uses different sources to assess whether, on the one hand, such a return movement has existed and, on the other hand, whether it could exist in the future. To do so, we analyse data from the Spanish Population Register (Padrón) and the Residential Variation Statistics (EVR) from 2003 to 2021, and a survey carried out in 2020 of 643 British people over 55 years of age living in Spain. In relation to the registry data, it has been observed that the return movement after Brexit has not been as significant as might be expected at a time of great uncertainty. Only in 2021 it was detected an increase in return movements, especially above the age of 75, probably caused by the end of the application of the Withdrawal Agreement. On the other hand, the survey results show that the intention to return is lower than in other similar surveys that have been carried out in the past, even in another COVID‐19 outbreak scenario. Moreover, this intention to return is especially related to variables linked to insertion, such as not being properly registered or owning a property in the United Kingdom, among other variables.