Nuclear Catastrophe Risk Bonds in a Markov Dependent Environment

Jia Shao, Athanasios Pantelous, Bilal Ayyub, Stephen L Chan, Saralees Nadarajah

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The financing of the 2011 Fukushima disaster and the UK Hinkley nuclear power plant in vestment, respectively by the Japanese, and UK and Chinese governments and the private sector provide a strong motivation for this paper to explore deeper the concept of modeling and pricing Nuclear Catastrophe (N-CAT) risk bonds. Due to the magnitude of the potential liabilities and re-investments needed, the demand to develop a dependable liability coverage product that can be triggered in a case of emergency is required more than ever and it should be considered thoroughly. Thus, in the present paper, under a semi-Markov structure environment to model the relationship between claims severity and intensity, the N-CAT risk bond is further explored under various scenarios supporting further the bond sponsors, allowing them to appreciate more their significance. Consequently, the new version of the N-CAT risk bond includes several absorbing and transit states to make it more suitable for practitioners. Additionally, this paper employs the two most commonly used interest rate models and considers four types of payoff functions. Finally, two numerical examples illustrate the main findings.
Original languageEnglish
JournalASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 19 Jul 2017


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