Low-carbon development pathways for resource-based cities in China under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals

Resource-based cities are important strategic bases for securing resources in China and have made great contributions to the country’s economic development. Long-term extensive resource development has made resource-based cities an important region constraining China from achieving comprehensive low-carbon development. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the low-carbon transition path of resource-based cities for their energy greening, industrial transformation, and high-quality economic development. This study compiled the CO₂ emission inventory of resource-based cities in China from 2005 to 2017, explored the contribution to CO₂ emissions from three perspectives (driver, industry, and city), and predicted the peak of CO₂ emissions in resource-based cities. The results show that resource-based cities contribute 18.4% of the country’s GDP and emit 44.4% of the country’s CO₂ and that economic growth and CO₂ emissions have not yet been decoupled. The per capita CO₂ emissions and emission intensity of resource-based cities are 1.8 times and 2.4 times higher than the national average, respectively. Economic growth and energy intensity are the biggest drivers and main inhibitors of CO₂ emissions growth. Industrial restructuring has become the biggest inhibitor of CO₂ emissions growth. Based on the different resource endowments, industrial structures, and socio-economic development levels of resource-based cities, we propose differentiated low-carbon transition pathways. This study can provide references for cities to develop differentiated low-carbon development paths under the “double carbon” target.