Investigating the fast energy-related carbon emissions growth in African countries and its drivers

Efforts to avoid the acceleration of global warming have tended to focus on countries with high CO₂ emissions levels and large populations, with a high level of economic development or industrialization. African countries, which often do not conform to such criteria, are more vulnerable to climate change due to their dependence on climate-sensitive industries and their limited infrastructure and technological capacity to cope with its impacts. The long-term economic growth rates projected for Africa's rapid development period will, further, make Africa a potential emission hotspot in the near future. Here, for the first time, we built an energy-related emissions inventory for 19 African countries for 2010–2019, which addresses emissions from 47 economic sectors and 5 energy types, making it the most comprehensive of its kind. The degree of decoupling of economy and emissions, and drivers of CO₂ emission changes are also examined. Most African countries experienced rapid growth in CO₂ emissions, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% for fossil fuel-related CO₂ emissions and 6.0% for unsustainable biomass-related CO₂ emissions. Only two countries, South Africa and Tanzania, have achieved a strong decoupling of economic growth from CO₂ emissions. Economic and population are the most important drivers of emissions, while energy intensity has been identified as a key factor in mitigating CO₂ emissions, especially for those countries that have reached strong or weak decoupling. The findings from this study provide essential insights that could guide the development of low-carbon policies and strategies in Africa.