Abstract
Background: Evidence on the long-term employment consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection is lacking. We used data from a large, community-based sample in the UK to estimate associations between Long Covid and employment outcomes.
Methods: This was an observational, longitudinal study using a pre-post design. We included survey participants from 3 February 2021 to 30 September 2022 when they were aged 16-64 years and not in education. Using conditional logit modelling, we explored the time-varying relationship between Long Covid status ≥12 weeks after a first test-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (reference: pre-infection) and labour market inactivity (neither working nor looking for work) or workplace absence lasting ≥4 weeks.
Results: Of 206,299 participants (mean age 45 years, 54% female, 92% white), 15% were ever labour market inactive and 10% were ever long-term absent during follow-up. Compared with pre-infection, inactivity was higher in participants reporting Long Covid 30 to <40 weeks (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.81) or 40 to <52 weeks (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.72) post-infection. Combining with official statistics on Long Covid prevalence, and assuming a correct statistical model, our estimates translate to 27,000 (95% CI: 6,000 to 47,000) working-age adults in the UK being inactive because of Long Covid in July 2022.
Conclusions: Long Covid is likely to have contributed to reduced participation in the UK labour market, though it is unlikely to be the sole driver. Further research is required to quantify the contribution of other factors, such as indirect health effects of the pandemic.
Methods: This was an observational, longitudinal study using a pre-post design. We included survey participants from 3 February 2021 to 30 September 2022 when they were aged 16-64 years and not in education. Using conditional logit modelling, we explored the time-varying relationship between Long Covid status ≥12 weeks after a first test-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (reference: pre-infection) and labour market inactivity (neither working nor looking for work) or workplace absence lasting ≥4 weeks.
Results: Of 206,299 participants (mean age 45 years, 54% female, 92% white), 15% were ever labour market inactive and 10% were ever long-term absent during follow-up. Compared with pre-infection, inactivity was higher in participants reporting Long Covid 30 to <40 weeks (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.81) or 40 to <52 weeks (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.72) post-infection. Combining with official statistics on Long Covid prevalence, and assuming a correct statistical model, our estimates translate to 27,000 (95% CI: 6,000 to 47,000) working-age adults in the UK being inactive because of Long Covid in July 2022.
Conclusions: Long Covid is likely to have contributed to reduced participation in the UK labour market, though it is unlikely to be the sole driver. Further research is required to quantify the contribution of other factors, such as indirect health effects of the pandemic.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | ckae034 |
| Journal | European Journal of Public Health |
| Early online date | 29 Feb 2024 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 29 Feb 2024 |
Bibliographical note
Funding:The CIS is funded by the Department of Health and Social Care with in-kind support from the Welsh Government, the Department of Health on behalf of the Northern Ireland Government, and the Scottish Government. There was no dedicated funding for this analysis of CIS data.