Cold-season methane fluxes simulated by GCP-CH4 models

A. Ito; T. Li; J. Melton; H. Tian; T. Kleinen; W. Wang; Z. Zhang; F. Joos; P. Ciais; P. O. Hopcroft; D. J. Beerling; X. Liu; Q. Zhuang; Q. Zhu; C. Peng; K.-Y. Cheng; E. Fluet-Chouinard; G. McNicol; P. Patra; B. Poulter; S. Sitch; W. Riley; Q. Zhu

doi:10.1029/2023GL103037

Cold-season methane fluxes simulated by GCP-CH₄ models

A. Ito^*, T. Li, J. Melton, H. Tian, T. Kleinen, W. Wang, Z. Zhang, F. Joos, P. Ciais, P. O. Hopcroft, D. J. Beerling, X. Liu, Q. Zhuang, Q. Zhu, C. Peng, K.-Y. Cheng, E. Fluet-Chouinard, G. McNicol, P. Patra, B. PoulterS. Sitch, W. Riley, Q. Zhu

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Cold‐season methane (CH4) emissions may be poorly constrained in wetland models. We examined cold‐season CH₄ emissions simulated by 16 models participating in the Global Carbon Project model intercomparison and analyzed temporal and spatial patterns in simulation results using prescribed inundation data for 2000–2020. Estimated annual CH₄ emissions from northern (>60°N) wetlands averaged 10.0 ± 5.5 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹. While summer CH₄ emissions were well simulated compared to in‐situ flux measurement observations, the models underestimated CH₄ during September to May relative to annual total (27 ± 9%, compared to 45% in observations) and substantially in the months with subzero air temperatures (5 ± 5%, compared to 27% in observations). Because of winter warming, nevertheless, the contribution of cold‐season emissions was simulated to increase at 0.4 ± 0.8% decade⁻¹. Different parameterizations of processes, for example, freezing–thawing and snow insulation, caused conspicuous variability among models, implying the necessity of model refinement.

Original language	English
Article number	e2023GL103037
Number of pages	12
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	50
Issue number	14
Early online date	17 Jul 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103037
Publication status	Published - 28 Jul 2023

Bibliographical note

Acknowledgments:
This study is a contribution to the global CH4 synthesis organized by the Global Carbon Project, and all model simulations were conducted using the protocol and input data prepared by the project. AI was supported by the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF21S20830 and JPMEERF21S12007) of the Ministry of the Environment and the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, and the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (JPMXD1420318865) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. PH is grateful for support from a University of Birmingham Fellowship and BEAR computing facilities. FJ acknowledges support by the Swiss National Science Foundation (#200020_200511). TK acknowledges support from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the project PalMod, Grant 01LP1507B.

Keywords

cold‐season emissions
global warming
methane budget
model intercomparison
wetland models

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Cite this

Ito, A., Li, T., Melton, J., Tian, H., Kleinen, T., Wang, W., Zhang, Z., Joos, F., Ciais, P., Hopcroft, P. O., Beerling, D. J., Liu, X., Zhuang, Q., Zhu, Q., Peng, C., Cheng, K.-Y., Fluet-Chouinard, E., McNicol, G., Patra, P., ... Zhu, Q. (2023). Cold-season methane fluxes simulated by GCP-CH₄ models. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(14), Article e2023GL103037. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103037

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title = "Cold-season methane fluxes simulated by GCP-CH4 models",

abstract = "Cold‐season methane (CH4) emissions may be poorly constrained in wetland models. We examined cold‐season CH4 emissions simulated by 16 models participating in the Global Carbon Project model intercomparison and analyzed temporal and spatial patterns in simulation results using prescribed inundation data for 2000–2020. Estimated annual CH4 emissions from northern (>60°N) wetlands averaged 10.0 ± 5.5 Tg CH4 yr−1. While summer CH4 emissions were well simulated compared to in‐situ flux measurement observations, the models underestimated CH4 during September to May relative to annual total (27 ± 9%, compared to 45% in observations) and substantially in the months with subzero air temperatures (5 ± 5%, compared to 27% in observations). Because of winter warming, nevertheless, the contribution of cold‐season emissions was simulated to increase at 0.4 ± 0.8% decade−1. Different parameterizations of processes, for example, freezing–thawing and snow insulation, caused conspicuous variability among models, implying the necessity of model refinement.",

keywords = "cold‐season emissions, global warming, methane budget, model intercomparison, wetland models",

author = "A. Ito and T. Li and J. Melton and H. Tian and T. Kleinen and W. Wang and Z. Zhang and F. Joos and P. Ciais and Hopcroft, {P. O.} and Beerling, {D. J.} and X. Liu and Q. Zhuang and Q. Zhu and C. Peng and K.-Y. Cheng and E. Fluet-Chouinard and G. McNicol and P. Patra and B. Poulter and S. Sitch and W. Riley and Q. Zhu",

note = "Acknowledgments: This study is a contribution to the global CH4 synthesis organized by the Global Carbon Project, and all model simulations were conducted using the protocol and input data prepared by the project. AI was supported by the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF21S20830 and JPMEERF21S12007) of the Ministry of the Environment and the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, and the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (JPMXD1420318865) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. PH is grateful for support from a University of Birmingham Fellowship and BEAR computing facilities. FJ acknowledges support by the Swiss National Science Foundation (#200020_200511). TK acknowledges support from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the project PalMod, Grant 01LP1507B.",

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Ito, A, Li, T, Melton, J, Tian, H, Kleinen, T, Wang, W, Zhang, Z, Joos, F, Ciais, P, Hopcroft, PO, Beerling, DJ, Liu, X, Zhuang, Q, Zhu, Q, Peng, C, Cheng, K-Y, Fluet-Chouinard, E, McNicol, G, Patra, P, Poulter, B, Sitch, S, Riley, W & Zhu, Q 2023, 'Cold-season methane fluxes simulated by GCP-CH₄ models', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 50, no. 14, e2023GL103037. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103037

TY - JOUR

T1 - Cold-season methane fluxes simulated by GCP-CH4 models

AU - Ito, A.

AU - Li, T.

AU - Melton, J.

AU - Tian, H.

AU - Kleinen, T.

AU - Wang, W.

AU - Zhang, Z.

AU - Joos, F.

AU - Ciais, P.

AU - Hopcroft, P. O.

AU - Beerling, D. J.

AU - Liu, X.

AU - Zhuang, Q.

AU - Zhu, Q.

AU - Peng, C.

AU - Cheng, K.-Y.

AU - Fluet-Chouinard, E.

AU - McNicol, G.

AU - Patra, P.

AU - Poulter, B.

AU - Sitch, S.

AU - Riley, W.

AU - Zhu, Q.

N1 - Acknowledgments: This study is a contribution to the global CH4 synthesis organized by the Global Carbon Project, and all model simulations were conducted using the protocol and input data prepared by the project. AI was supported by the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF21S20830 and JPMEERF21S12007) of the Ministry of the Environment and the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, and the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (JPMXD1420318865) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. PH is grateful for support from a University of Birmingham Fellowship and BEAR computing facilities. FJ acknowledges support by the Swiss National Science Foundation (#200020_200511). TK acknowledges support from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the project PalMod, Grant 01LP1507B.

PY - 2023/7/28

Y1 - 2023/7/28

N2 - Cold‐season methane (CH4) emissions may be poorly constrained in wetland models. We examined cold‐season CH4 emissions simulated by 16 models participating in the Global Carbon Project model intercomparison and analyzed temporal and spatial patterns in simulation results using prescribed inundation data for 2000–2020. Estimated annual CH4 emissions from northern (>60°N) wetlands averaged 10.0 ± 5.5 Tg CH4 yr−1. While summer CH4 emissions were well simulated compared to in‐situ flux measurement observations, the models underestimated CH4 during September to May relative to annual total (27 ± 9%, compared to 45% in observations) and substantially in the months with subzero air temperatures (5 ± 5%, compared to 27% in observations). Because of winter warming, nevertheless, the contribution of cold‐season emissions was simulated to increase at 0.4 ± 0.8% decade−1. Different parameterizations of processes, for example, freezing–thawing and snow insulation, caused conspicuous variability among models, implying the necessity of model refinement.

AB - Cold‐season methane (CH4) emissions may be poorly constrained in wetland models. We examined cold‐season CH4 emissions simulated by 16 models participating in the Global Carbon Project model intercomparison and analyzed temporal and spatial patterns in simulation results using prescribed inundation data for 2000–2020. Estimated annual CH4 emissions from northern (>60°N) wetlands averaged 10.0 ± 5.5 Tg CH4 yr−1. While summer CH4 emissions were well simulated compared to in‐situ flux measurement observations, the models underestimated CH4 during September to May relative to annual total (27 ± 9%, compared to 45% in observations) and substantially in the months with subzero air temperatures (5 ± 5%, compared to 27% in observations). Because of winter warming, nevertheless, the contribution of cold‐season emissions was simulated to increase at 0.4 ± 0.8% decade−1. Different parameterizations of processes, for example, freezing–thawing and snow insulation, caused conspicuous variability among models, implying the necessity of model refinement.

KW - cold‐season emissions

KW - global warming

KW - methane budget

KW - model intercomparison

KW - wetland models

U2 - 10.1029/2023GL103037

DO - 10.1029/2023GL103037

M3 - Letter

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 50

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 14

M1 - e2023GL103037

ER -