Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems

Laibao Liu*, Gang He, Mengxi Wu*, Gang Liu, Haoran Zhang, Ying Chen, Jiashu Shen, Shuangcheng Li

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

51 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Climate change modulates both energy demand and wind and solar energy supply but a globally synthetic analysis of supply–demand match (SDM) is lacking. Here, we use 12 state-of-the-art climate models to assess climate change impacts on SDM, quantified by the fraction of demand met by local wind or solar supply. For energy systems with varying dependence on wind or solar supply, up to 32% or 44% of non-Antarctic land areas, respectively, are projected to experience robust SDM reductions by the end of this century under an intermediate emission scenario. Smaller and more variable supply reduces SDM at northern middle-to-high latitudes, whereas reduced heating demand alleviates or reverses SDM reductions remarkably. By contrast, despite supply increases at low latitudes, raised cooling demand reduces SDM substantially. Changes in climate extremes and climate mean make size-comparable contributions. Our results provide early warnings for energy sectors in climate change adaptation.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)870-880
Number of pages11
JournalNature Energy
Volume8
Issue number8
Early online date24 Jul 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2023

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this