Assessing long-term future climate change impacts on extreme low wind events for offshore wind turbines in the UK exclusive economic zone

The impacts of climate change must be considered while planning offshore wind turbines (OWT), as it will result in more frequent and severe weather extremes. To ensure the dependability and affordability of wind energy, it is necessary to address extreme low wind speed events (LWE). This study aims to assess the reliability of wind power in the future by analyzing the rise of low wind durations and intensities in two future periods, 2021–2040 and 2061–2080, compared to the historical period of 1981–2000. The research compares the results for four main regions in the UK EEZ: East, South, West, and North. We examine different cut-in thresholds of 3 m/s, 4 m/s, 5 m/s, and 6 m/s in the UK exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The seasonal variations in LWE durations <4 m/s demonstrate that summer and autumn have an increase in most of the LWE durations occurrence in the 2061–2080 period in all regions compared to the historical period. Using five days running mean wind speed, the return time for 6 m/s cut-in wind speed shows that OWT will be vulnerable to frequent extreme LWE in most areas, with most sites experiencing a return period of up to 20 years. According to the return year region median and the Risk Ratio (RR) calculations, it is suggested that the South region exhibits a diminished risk of experiencing more frequent instances of wind speeds surpassing the cut-in threshold, specifically when utilizing cut-in thresholds of 5 m/s and 6 m/s, during the period spanning 2021–2040, as compared to the historical period. Furthermore, when employing 6-, 7-, and 8-day running means, the analysis reveals that the return period for wind speeds of 4 m/s in the Western region remains consistently recommended throughout the 2021–2040 period. In contrast, utilizing a 6-day time window for assessing the return period of 4 m/s wind speeds indicates a notable escalation in risk across all regions during the 2061–2080 period.