Analysis of COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality in a low- income region:: an ecological time-series study in Tocantins, Brazilian Amazon

Andre Evaristo Marcondes Cesar; Blanca Elena Guerrero Daboin; Tassiane Cristina Morais; Isabella Portugal; Jorge de Oliveira Echeimberg; Luciano Miller Reis Rodrigues; Lucas Cauê Jacintho; Rodrigo Daminello Raimundo; Khalifa Elmusharaf; Carlos Eduardo Siqueira

doi:10.36311/JHGD.V31.12744

Analysis of COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality in a low- income region: an ecological time-series study in Tocantins, Brazilian Amazon

Andre Evaristo Marcondes Cesar^*, Blanca Elena Guerrero Daboin, Tassiane Cristina Morais, Isabella Portugal, Jorge de Oliveira Echeimberg, Luciano Miller Reis Rodrigues, Lucas Cauê Jacintho, Rodrigo Daminello Raimundo, Khalifa Elmusharaf, Carlos Eduardo Siqueira

^*Corresponding author for this work

Applied Health Research

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Abstract

Introduction: Inserted in the vulnerable context of the Brazilian Amazon, the state of Tocantins has suffered damages with the dissemination of COVID-19 in its territory; however, little evidence is published from this state.

Objective: This study aims to analyze the case-fatality, mortality, and incidence of COVID-19 in Tocantins.

Methods: This is an ecological study, population-based, time-series analysis of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the state of Tocantins from March 2020 to August 2021.

Results: During the examined period, 219,031 COVID-19 cases, and 3,594 deaths were registered due to disease. Two possible occurrence peaks were characterized in this time-series analysis. Remarkably, the Second Wave had the highest lethality rates (3.02% - April 2021), mortality (39.81 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants – March 2021), and incidence (1,938.88 cases per 100,000 inhabitants – March 2021). At the end of the period, mortality, incidence, and lethality showed flat trends, suggesting a positive outcome of the vaccination program.

Conclusion: The prevention, surveillance, and control actions of COVID-19 cases in Tocantins State have been directed to mitigate the deleterious effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, efforts are still needed to decrease lethality, mortality, and incidence trends, and ultimately to achieve control of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	496-506
Number of pages	11
Journal	Journal of Human Growth and Development
Volume	31
Issue number	3
Early online date	30 Nov 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.36311/JHGD.V31.12744
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2021

Bibliographical note

Copyright:
© 2021 Cesar AEM, Daboin BEG, Morais TC, Portugal I, Echeimberg JO, Rodrigues LMR, Jacintho LC, Raimundo RD, Elmusharaf K, Siqueira CE.

Keywords

Case fatality
Covid-19
Incidence
Mortality
Trends

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Life-span and Life-course Studies

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

Cesar, A. E. M., Daboin, B. E. G., Morais, T. C., Portugal, I., de Oliveira Echeimberg, J., Rodrigues, L. M. R., Jacintho, L. C., Raimundo, R. D., Elmusharaf, K., & Siqueira, C. E. (2021). Analysis of COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality in a low- income region: an ecological time-series study in Tocantins, Brazilian Amazon. Journal of Human Growth and Development, 31(3), 496-506. https://doi.org/10.36311/JHGD.V31.12744

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abstract = "Introduction: Inserted in the vulnerable context of the Brazilian Amazon, the state of Tocantins has suffered damages with the dissemination of COVID-19 in its territory; however, little evidence is published from this state.Objective: This study aims to analyze the case-fatality, mortality, and incidence of COVID-19 in Tocantins.Methods: This is an ecological study, population-based, time-series analysis of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the state of Tocantins from March 2020 to August 2021.Results: During the examined period, 219,031 COVID-19 cases, and 3,594 deaths were registered due to disease. Two possible occurrence peaks were characterized in this time-series analysis. Remarkably, the Second Wave had the highest lethality rates (3.02% - April 2021), mortality (39.81 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants – March 2021), and incidence (1,938.88 cases per 100,000 inhabitants – March 2021). At the end of the period, mortality, incidence, and lethality showed flat trends, suggesting a positive outcome of the vaccination program.Conclusion: The prevention, surveillance, and control actions of COVID-19 cases in Tocantins State have been directed to mitigate the deleterious effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, efforts are still needed to decrease lethality, mortality, and incidence trends, and ultimately to achieve control of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region.",

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author = "Cesar, {Andre Evaristo Marcondes} and Daboin, {Blanca Elena Guerrero} and Morais, {Tassiane Cristina} and Isabella Portugal and {de Oliveira Echeimberg}, Jorge and Rodrigues, {Luciano Miller Reis} and Jacintho, {Lucas Cau{\^e}} and Raimundo, {Rodrigo Daminello} and Khalifa Elmusharaf and Siqueira, {Carlos Eduardo}",

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Cesar, AEM, Daboin, BEG, Morais, TC, Portugal, I, de Oliveira Echeimberg, J, Rodrigues, LMR, Jacintho, LC, Raimundo, RD, Elmusharaf, K & Siqueira, CE 2021, 'Analysis of COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality in a low- income region: an ecological time-series study in Tocantins, Brazilian Amazon', Journal of Human Growth and Development, vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 496-506. https://doi.org/10.36311/JHGD.V31.12744

Analysis of COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality in a low- income region: an ecological time-series study in Tocantins, Brazilian Amazon. / Cesar, Andre Evaristo Marcondes; Daboin, Blanca Elena Guerrero; Morais, Tassiane Cristina et al.
In: Journal of Human Growth and Development, Vol. 31, No. 3, 01.12.2021, p. 496-506.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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T1 - Analysis of COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality in a low- income region:

T2 - an ecological time-series study in Tocantins, Brazilian Amazon

AU - Cesar, Andre Evaristo Marcondes

AU - Daboin, Blanca Elena Guerrero

AU - Morais, Tassiane Cristina

AU - Portugal, Isabella

AU - de Oliveira Echeimberg, Jorge

AU - Rodrigues, Luciano Miller Reis

AU - Jacintho, Lucas Cauê

AU - Raimundo, Rodrigo Daminello

AU - Elmusharaf, Khalifa

AU - Siqueira, Carlos Eduardo

PY - 2021/12/1

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N2 - Introduction: Inserted in the vulnerable context of the Brazilian Amazon, the state of Tocantins has suffered damages with the dissemination of COVID-19 in its territory; however, little evidence is published from this state.Objective: This study aims to analyze the case-fatality, mortality, and incidence of COVID-19 in Tocantins.Methods: This is an ecological study, population-based, time-series analysis of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the state of Tocantins from March 2020 to August 2021.Results: During the examined period, 219,031 COVID-19 cases, and 3,594 deaths were registered due to disease. Two possible occurrence peaks were characterized in this time-series analysis. Remarkably, the Second Wave had the highest lethality rates (3.02% - April 2021), mortality (39.81 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants – March 2021), and incidence (1,938.88 cases per 100,000 inhabitants – March 2021). At the end of the period, mortality, incidence, and lethality showed flat trends, suggesting a positive outcome of the vaccination program.Conclusion: The prevention, surveillance, and control actions of COVID-19 cases in Tocantins State have been directed to mitigate the deleterious effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, efforts are still needed to decrease lethality, mortality, and incidence trends, and ultimately to achieve control of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region.

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