An annotated timeline of sensitivity analysis

Stefano Tarantola*, Federico Ferretti, Samuele Lo Piano, Mariia Kozlova, Alessio Lachi, Rossana Rosati, Arnald Puy, Pamphile Roy, Giulia Vannucci, Marta Kuc-Czarnecka, Andrea Saltelli

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

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Abstract

The last half a century has seen spectacular progresses in computing and modelling in a variety of fields, applications, and methodologies. Over the same period, a cross-disciplinary field known as sensitivity analysis has been making its first steps, evolving from the design of experiments for laboratory or field studies, also called ‘in-vivo’, to the so-called experiments ‘in-silico’. Some disciplines were quick to realize the importance of sensitivity analysis, whereas others are still lagging behind. Major tensions within the evolution of this discipline arise from the interplay between local vs global perspectives in the analysis as well as the juxtaposition of the mathematical complexification and the desire for practical applicability. In this work, we retrace these main steps with some attention to the methods and through a bibliometric survey to assess the accomplishments of sensitivity analysis and to identify the potential for its future advancement with a focus on relevant disciplines, such as the environmental field.
Original languageEnglish
Article number105977
Number of pages8
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Volume174
Early online date14 Feb 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2024

Bibliographical note

Acknowledgments:
The Authors would like to acknowledge personal communication with Prof. Max D. Morris (Iowa State University) and useful suggestions provided by Bertrand Iooss (EDF, France). Co-author Mariia Kozlova acknowledges support by grant #220177 from the Finnish Foundation for Economic Education. Co-author Andrea Saltelli acknowledges the project i4Driving, EU Horizon program, (Grant Agreement ID 101076165).

Keywords

  • Global sensitivity analysis
  • Local sensitivity analysis
  • Monte Carlo
  • History of sensitivity analysis
  • Design of experiments

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