Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Colleges, School and Institutes
- University of Edinburgh
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
- University of Southampton
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Laboratory of Molecular Bacteriology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium
- University of Oxford
- Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT
- Center for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland 21702, USA.
- University of Cambridge
- Institute of Lassa Fever Research and Control, Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital, Irrua, Nigeria.
- Wellcome Sanger Institute
- The European Mobile Laboratory Consortium, 20359 Hamburg, Germany.
- Naval Medical Research Unit 3, 3A Imtidad Ramses Street, Cairo 11517, Egypt.
- Public Health England
- Liberian Institute for Biomedical Research, Charlesville, Liberia.
- Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Unit, 36 Avenue Pasteur, BP 220, Dakar, Sénégal.
- University of Sierra Leone, Freetown, Sierra Leone.
- Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital
- Department of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Centre, PO Box 2040, 300 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
- University of Liverpool
- Department of Public Health, University of Makeni, Sierra Leone.
- Chinese Academy of Sciences
- University of Bristol
- University of Birmingham
- Department of Pediatrics, Section of Infectious Diseases, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112, USA.
- Institut Pasteur, Functional Genetics of Infectious Diseases Unit, 28 rue du Docteur Roux, 75724 Paris Cedex 15, France.
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- The Scripps Research Institute
- Ministry of Social Welfare, Gender and Children's Affairs, New Englandville, Freetown, Sierra Leone.
- Minstry of Health Liberia, Monrovia, Liberia.
- World Health Organization
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112, USA.
- Department of Biological Sciences, Redeemer's University, Ede, Osun State, Nigeria.
- University of Sydney
- Ministry of Health and Sanitation, 4th Floor Youyi Building, Freetown, Sierra Leone.
- Ministry of Health, Conakry, Guinea.
- National Institutes of Health
- Université Gamal Abdel Nasser de Conakry, Laboratoire des Fièvres Hémorragiques en Guinée, Conakry, Guinea.
- Department of Biostatistics, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA.
The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.
|Number of pages||7|
|Early online date||12 Apr 2017|
|Publication status||Published - 20 Apr 2017|
- Statistical methods, Viral infection, Phylogenetics , Epidemiology