The role of short-term and longer-term immigration trends on voting for populist radical right parties in Europe

Miguel Rui Ribeiro Da Silva Taborda Ramos, Sandy Schumann, Miles Hewstone

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Abstract

The success of populist radical right parties (PRRPs) in Europe has, in part, been attributed to growing immigration, but previous findings have found an inconsistent relationship between immigration and voting for PRRPs. We address previous inconsistencies by suggesting a time-focused perspective on intergroup relations. We disentangle short-term from longer-term immigration trends and argue that a recent increase in immigration should predict PRRP support. With time, however, citizens will adapt to these demographic changes and voting for PRRPs could decline. We drew on official immigration records and representative data from the European Social Survey, capturing the voting behavior of 75,874 individuals from 15 European countries between 2002 and 2014. We found that a recent increase in immigration predicted more PRRP voting, and this relationship was strengthened under conditions of higher economic strain and inequality. In contrast, sustained immigration in the longer-term was not related with PRRP votes.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-11
Number of pages11
JournalSocial Psychological and Personality Science
Early online date14 Sept 2021
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 14 Sept 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This research was supported by a Nuffield Foundation Grant WEL/43108 awarded to Miguel R. Ramos and Miles Hewstone. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of who have funded this research.

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2021.

Keywords

  • country wealth
  • immigration
  • populist radical right parties
  • social inequalities
  • voting behavior

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Psychology
  • Clinical Psychology

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