The potential impact of climate change on oat lodging in the UK and Republic of Ireland

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The potential impact of climate change on oat lodging in the UK and Republic of Ireland. / Mohammadi, Mohammadreza; Finnan, John; Baker, Christopher; Sterling, Mark.

In: Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2020, 4138469, 22.01.2020.

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@article{bca107eb57ec4844bee2d7d0c0db48ed,
title = "The potential impact of climate change on oat lodging in the UK and Republic of Ireland",
abstract = "This paper examines the impact that climate change may have on the lodging of oats in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Through the consideration of a novel lodging model representing the motion of an oat plant due to the interaction of wind and rain, and integrating future predictions of wind and rainfall due to climate change, appropriate conclusions have been made. In order to provide meteorological data for the lodging model, wind and rainfall inputs are analysed using 30 years{\textquoteright} time series corresponding to peak lodging months (June and July) from 38 meteorological stations in the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic, which enables the relevant probability density functions (PDF) to be established. Moreover, climate data for the next six decades in the British Isles produced by UK climate change projections (UKCP18) are analysed and future wind and rainfall PDFs are obtained. It is observed that the predicted changes likely to occur during the key growing period (June to July) in the next 30 years are in keeping with variations, which can occur due to different husbandry treatments / plant varieties. In addition, the utility of a double exponential function for representing the rainfall probability has been observed with appropriate values for the constants given. ",
author = "Mohammadreza Mohammadi and John Finnan and Christopher Baker and Mark Sterling",
year = "2020",
month = jan,
day = "22",
doi = "10.1155/2020/4138469",
language = "English",
volume = "2020",
journal = "Advances in Meteorology",
issn = "1687-9309",
publisher = "Hindawi Publishing Corporation",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The potential impact of climate change on oat lodging in the UK and Republic of Ireland

AU - Mohammadi, Mohammadreza

AU - Finnan, John

AU - Baker, Christopher

AU - Sterling, Mark

PY - 2020/1/22

Y1 - 2020/1/22

N2 - This paper examines the impact that climate change may have on the lodging of oats in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Through the consideration of a novel lodging model representing the motion of an oat plant due to the interaction of wind and rain, and integrating future predictions of wind and rainfall due to climate change, appropriate conclusions have been made. In order to provide meteorological data for the lodging model, wind and rainfall inputs are analysed using 30 years’ time series corresponding to peak lodging months (June and July) from 38 meteorological stations in the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic, which enables the relevant probability density functions (PDF) to be established. Moreover, climate data for the next six decades in the British Isles produced by UK climate change projections (UKCP18) are analysed and future wind and rainfall PDFs are obtained. It is observed that the predicted changes likely to occur during the key growing period (June to July) in the next 30 years are in keeping with variations, which can occur due to different husbandry treatments / plant varieties. In addition, the utility of a double exponential function for representing the rainfall probability has been observed with appropriate values for the constants given.

AB - This paper examines the impact that climate change may have on the lodging of oats in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Through the consideration of a novel lodging model representing the motion of an oat plant due to the interaction of wind and rain, and integrating future predictions of wind and rainfall due to climate change, appropriate conclusions have been made. In order to provide meteorological data for the lodging model, wind and rainfall inputs are analysed using 30 years’ time series corresponding to peak lodging months (June and July) from 38 meteorological stations in the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic, which enables the relevant probability density functions (PDF) to be established. Moreover, climate data for the next six decades in the British Isles produced by UK climate change projections (UKCP18) are analysed and future wind and rainfall PDFs are obtained. It is observed that the predicted changes likely to occur during the key growing period (June to July) in the next 30 years are in keeping with variations, which can occur due to different husbandry treatments / plant varieties. In addition, the utility of a double exponential function for representing the rainfall probability has been observed with appropriate values for the constants given.

U2 - 10.1155/2020/4138469

DO - 10.1155/2020/4138469

M3 - Article

VL - 2020

JO - Advances in Meteorology

JF - Advances in Meteorology

SN - 1687-9309

M1 - 4138469

ER -