The hidden curve behind COVID-19 outbreak: the impact of delay in treatment initiation in cancer patients and how to mitigate the additional risk of dying-the head and neck cancer model
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Colleges, School and Institutes
- University of São Paulo Medical School
- Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA)
- Fox Chase Cancer Center
- International Agency for Research on Cancer
- University of Toronto
- Hospital Universitario San Vicente Fundacion-CEXCA Centro de Excelencia en Enfermedades de Cabeza Y Cuello
- Léon Bérard Cancer Center
- Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
- University of Cape Town Medical School
- Oncology Apollo Hospitals
- Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Dei Tumori and University of Milan
- Kong Wu Ho-Su Memorial Hospital and Fu Jen Catholic University in Taiwan
- National Kapodistrian University of Athens, Attikon Hospital, Athens, Greece
- Brisbane's Princess Alexandra Hospital of the University of Queensland
- Poznan University of Medical Sciences
- Instituto Federal de Educação
- Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de São José Dos Campos
- Health Sciences, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal; Lenitudes Medical Center & Research, Santa Maria da Feira, Portugal.
PURPOSE: The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic around the world caused most healthcare services to turn substantial attention to treatment of these patients and also to alter the structure of healthcare systems to address an infectious disease. As a result, many cancer patients had their treatment deferred during the pandemic, increasing the time-to-treatment initiation, the number of untreated patients (which will alter the dynamics of healthcare delivery in the post-pandemic era) and increasing their risk of death. Hence, we analyzed the impact on global cancer mortality considering the decline in oncology care during the COVID-19 outbreak using head and neck cancer, a known time-dependent disease, as a model.
METHODS: An online practical tool capable of predicting the risk of cancer patients dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak and also useful for mitigation strategies after the peak of the pandemic has been developed, based on a mathematical model. The scenarios were estimated by information of 15 oncological services worldwide, given a perspective from the five continents and also some simulations were conducted at world demographic data.
RESULTS: The model demonstrates that the more that cancer care was maintained during the outbreak and also the more it is increased during the mitigation period, the shorter will be the recovery, lessening the additional risk of dying due to time-to-treatment initiation.
CONCLUSIONS: This impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer patients is inevitable, but it is possible to minimize it with an effort measured by the proposed model.
|Number of pages||13|
|Journal||Cancer Causes & Control|
|Early online date||11 Mar 2021|
|Publication status||Published - May 2021|