Statistical modeling of the coupled F‐region Ionosphere‐Thermosphere at high latitude during polar darkness

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


  • Gareth Dorrian
  • Alan Wood
  • Amy Ronksley
  • Anasuyah Aruliah
  • Golnass Shahtahmassebi

External organisations

  • University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
  • Nottingham Trent University


Statistical models have been developed for predicting the behavior of the coupled high‐latitude ionosphere‐thermosphere system. The modeled parameters were the F‐layer peak electron density, plasma structuring, ion temperature, neutral temperature, and the difference between these temperatures, which is a key term in the Joule heating equation. Ionospheric measurements from the European Incoherent Scatter Svalbard Radar and neutral atmosphere measurements from the colocated University College London Fabry‐Perot Interferometers have been made across a solar cycle. These data were all acquired during nighttime conditions as the observations with the Fabry‐Perot Interferometers are restricted to such times. Various geophysical proxies were tested to represent the processes that influence the modeled parameters. The dominant geophysical proxy for each modeled parameter was then determined. Multivariate models were also developed showing the combinations of parameters that best explained the observed variability. A comparison with climatology showed that the models give an improvement in every case with skill scores based on the mean square error of up to 0.88.


Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1389–1409
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Issue number2
Early online date18 Jan 2019
Publication statusPublished - 22 Mar 2019
Externally publishedYes


  • ionosphere‐thermosphere coupling, Joule heating, ionosphere plasma, space weather, linear modeling, climatology