Abstract
This research identifies solvability factors for burglary offences, and develops previous research by building, and testing, an algorithmic prediction model for solvability of burglary offences. It is based on a full population of 9,655 burglary offences reported to a UK Police force between 1st April 2012 and 30th April 2015. The dataset was split in half, with half being used to build the model and half to test it. Thirty-one solvability factors were identified, along with nine case-limiting factors, allowing a logit model to be built to predict solvability of burglary offences. When compared to a model of investigating all burglary offences, use of this model would reduce investigative workload by up to 42.2%, or 1,321 cases per year.
Original language | English |
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Number of pages | 16 |
Journal | Policing: A journal of Policy and Practice |
Early online date | 21 Feb 2019 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 21 Feb 2019 |
Keywords
- clearance
- solvability
- burglary
- prediction
- algorithmic prediction
- predictive accuracy