SIR economic epidemiological models with disease induced mortality

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SIR economic epidemiological models with disease induced mortality. / Goenka, Aditya; Liu, Lin; Nguyen, Manh-Hung.

In: Journal of Mathematical Economics, Vol. 93, 102476, 03.2021.

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@article{c727510d83ee46488ff1f2b8db158059,
title = "SIR economic epidemiological models with disease induced mortality",
abstract = "This paper studies an optimal growth model where there is an infectious disease with SIR dynamics which can lead to mortality. Health expenditures (alternatively intensity of lockdowns) can be made to reduce infectivity of the disease. We study implications of two different ways to model the disease related mortality – early and late in infection mortality – on the equilibrium health and economic outcomes. In the former, increasing mortality reduces infections by decreasing the fraction of infectives in the population, while in the latter the fraction of infectives increases. We characterize the steady states and the outcomes depend in the way mortality is modeled. With early mortality, increasing mortality leads to higher equilibrium per capita output and consumption while in the late mortality model these decrease. We establish sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIR dynamics with and without disease related mortality — a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable.",
keywords = "Covid-19, Infectious diseases, Lockdown, Mortality, SIR model, Sufficiency conditions",
author = "Aditya Goenka and Lin Liu and Manh-Hung Nguyen",
note = "Funding Information: We thank the referees for their helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies. Manh-Hung Nguyen acknowledges support from ANR, France under grant ANR-17-EURE-0010 (Investissements d{\textquoteright}Avenir program). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 Elsevier B.V.",
year = "2021",
month = mar,
doi = "10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102476",
language = "English",
volume = "93",
journal = "Journal of Mathematical Economics",
issn = "0304-4068",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - SIR economic epidemiological models with disease induced mortality

AU - Goenka, Aditya

AU - Liu, Lin

AU - Nguyen, Manh-Hung

N1 - Funding Information: We thank the referees for their helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies. Manh-Hung Nguyen acknowledges support from ANR, France under grant ANR-17-EURE-0010 (Investissements d’Avenir program). Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Elsevier B.V.

PY - 2021/3

Y1 - 2021/3

N2 - This paper studies an optimal growth model where there is an infectious disease with SIR dynamics which can lead to mortality. Health expenditures (alternatively intensity of lockdowns) can be made to reduce infectivity of the disease. We study implications of two different ways to model the disease related mortality – early and late in infection mortality – on the equilibrium health and economic outcomes. In the former, increasing mortality reduces infections by decreasing the fraction of infectives in the population, while in the latter the fraction of infectives increases. We characterize the steady states and the outcomes depend in the way mortality is modeled. With early mortality, increasing mortality leads to higher equilibrium per capita output and consumption while in the late mortality model these decrease. We establish sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIR dynamics with and without disease related mortality — a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable.

AB - This paper studies an optimal growth model where there is an infectious disease with SIR dynamics which can lead to mortality. Health expenditures (alternatively intensity of lockdowns) can be made to reduce infectivity of the disease. We study implications of two different ways to model the disease related mortality – early and late in infection mortality – on the equilibrium health and economic outcomes. In the former, increasing mortality reduces infections by decreasing the fraction of infectives in the population, while in the latter the fraction of infectives increases. We characterize the steady states and the outcomes depend in the way mortality is modeled. With early mortality, increasing mortality leads to higher equilibrium per capita output and consumption while in the late mortality model these decrease. We establish sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIR dynamics with and without disease related mortality — a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable.

KW - Covid-19

KW - Infectious diseases

KW - Lockdown

KW - Mortality

KW - SIR model

KW - Sufficiency conditions

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85101331534&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/schoolofmanagement/research/economics/SIR,Economic,Epidemiological,Models,with,Disease,Induced,Mortality.pdf

UR - https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/TSE/documents/doc/wp/2020/wp_tse_1150.pdf

U2 - 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102476

DO - 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102476

M3 - Article

VL - 93

JO - Journal of Mathematical Economics

JF - Journal of Mathematical Economics

SN - 0304-4068

M1 - 102476

ER -