Risk-Based Framework (RBF) for a UK pan-European Supergrid

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Risk-Based Framework (RBF) for a UK pan-European Supergrid. / Eskandari Torbaghan, Mehran; Burrow, Michael; Hunt, Dexter; ElCheikh, Marwa.

In: Energy, Vol. 124, 01.04.2017, p. 124–132.

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@article{367d80a8eb364f35b8e6ceadab1c6d5c,
title = "Risk-Based Framework (RBF) for a UK pan-European Supergrid",
abstract = "Interconnected electricity networks, or Supergrids, are considered as a possible solution to tackle challenges associated with near and far-future supply of electricity. These include, but are not limited to, reducing Green House Gas emissions and reliance on non-renewable fossil fuels. Supergrids can help to tackle these challenges, for example, by providing a reliable interconnection platform for wider application (and development) of renewable technologies. However, there is a range of risks and uncertainties associated with selecting appropriate interconnections. Heretofore these have been a hindrance to developing interconnections and therefore a Risk-Based Framework (RBF) which addresses these risks and uncertainties could encourage the wider uptake of Supergrids.This paper presents for the first time such a robust framework. The RBF comprises of four stages; (1) initial screening for selecting candidate countries, (2) risk identification, (3) risk semi-quantification and (4) risk quantification. In stage 4 the uncertainties associated with the identified risks are quantified using a cost-risk model under uncertainty based on a whole life appraisal approach. The usefulness of the approach, demonstrated using the UK as a case study, showed that greatest cost risks are associated with (a) regulatory framework, and (b) changes in energy policy. The most desirable interconnection option for the UK was identified as France. ",
keywords = "Interconnections, Risk assessment, Quantitative risk analysis, Trading electricity, Supergrid, Whole life appraisal",
author = "{Eskandari Torbaghan}, Mehran and Michael Burrow and Dexter Hunt and Marwa ElCheikh",
year = "2017",
month = apr
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.058",
language = "English",
volume = "124",
pages = "124–132",
journal = "Energy",
issn = "0360-5442",
publisher = "Elsevier Korea",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Risk-Based Framework (RBF) for a UK pan-European Supergrid

AU - Eskandari Torbaghan, Mehran

AU - Burrow, Michael

AU - Hunt, Dexter

AU - ElCheikh, Marwa

PY - 2017/4/1

Y1 - 2017/4/1

N2 - Interconnected electricity networks, or Supergrids, are considered as a possible solution to tackle challenges associated with near and far-future supply of electricity. These include, but are not limited to, reducing Green House Gas emissions and reliance on non-renewable fossil fuels. Supergrids can help to tackle these challenges, for example, by providing a reliable interconnection platform for wider application (and development) of renewable technologies. However, there is a range of risks and uncertainties associated with selecting appropriate interconnections. Heretofore these have been a hindrance to developing interconnections and therefore a Risk-Based Framework (RBF) which addresses these risks and uncertainties could encourage the wider uptake of Supergrids.This paper presents for the first time such a robust framework. The RBF comprises of four stages; (1) initial screening for selecting candidate countries, (2) risk identification, (3) risk semi-quantification and (4) risk quantification. In stage 4 the uncertainties associated with the identified risks are quantified using a cost-risk model under uncertainty based on a whole life appraisal approach. The usefulness of the approach, demonstrated using the UK as a case study, showed that greatest cost risks are associated with (a) regulatory framework, and (b) changes in energy policy. The most desirable interconnection option for the UK was identified as France.

AB - Interconnected electricity networks, or Supergrids, are considered as a possible solution to tackle challenges associated with near and far-future supply of electricity. These include, but are not limited to, reducing Green House Gas emissions and reliance on non-renewable fossil fuels. Supergrids can help to tackle these challenges, for example, by providing a reliable interconnection platform for wider application (and development) of renewable technologies. However, there is a range of risks and uncertainties associated with selecting appropriate interconnections. Heretofore these have been a hindrance to developing interconnections and therefore a Risk-Based Framework (RBF) which addresses these risks and uncertainties could encourage the wider uptake of Supergrids.This paper presents for the first time such a robust framework. The RBF comprises of four stages; (1) initial screening for selecting candidate countries, (2) risk identification, (3) risk semi-quantification and (4) risk quantification. In stage 4 the uncertainties associated with the identified risks are quantified using a cost-risk model under uncertainty based on a whole life appraisal approach. The usefulness of the approach, demonstrated using the UK as a case study, showed that greatest cost risks are associated with (a) regulatory framework, and (b) changes in energy policy. The most desirable interconnection option for the UK was identified as France.

KW - Interconnections

KW - Risk assessment

KW - Quantitative risk analysis

KW - Trading electricity

KW - Supergrid

KW - Whole life appraisal

U2 - 10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.058

DO - 10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.058

M3 - Article

VL - 124

SP - 124

EP - 132

JO - Energy

JF - Energy

SN - 0360-5442

ER -