Prediction of periodontal disease: modelling and validation in different general German populations

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


  • Yiqiang Zhan
  • Birte Holtfreter
  • Peter Meisel
  • Thomas Hoffmann
  • Wolfgang Micheelis
  • Thomas Kocher

Colleges, School and Institutes


AIM: To develop models for periodontitis using self-reported questions and to validate them externally.

METHODS: The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-0) was used for model development. Periodontitis was defined according to the definitions of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention-American Academy of Periodontology, the 5th European Workshop in Periodontology, and Dietrich et al. (≥2 teeth with inter-proximal clinical attachment loss of ≥4 mm and 6 mm as moderate and severe periodontitis) respectively. These models were validated in SHIP-Trend and the Fourth German Oral Health Study (DMS IV).

RESULTS: Final models included age, gender, education, smoking, bleeding on brushing and self-reported presence of mobile teeth. Concordance-statistics (C-statistics) of the final models from SHIP-0 were 0.84, 0.82 and 0.85 for the three definitions respectively. Validation in SHIP-Trend revealed C-statistics of 0.82, 0.81 and 0.82 respectively. As bleeding on brushing and presence of mobile teeth were unavailable in DMS IV, reduced models were developed. C-statistics of reduced models were 0.82, 0.81 and 0.83 respectively. Validation in DMS IV revealed C-statistics of 0.72, 0.78 and 0.72 for the three definitions respectively. All p values of the goodness-of-fit tests were >0.05.

CONCLUSIONS: The models yielded a moderate usefulness for prediction of periodontitis.

Bibliographic note

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.


Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)224-31
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Clinical Periodontology
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2014


  • Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Cohort Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, Educational Status, Female, Forecasting, Germany, Gingival Hemorrhage, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Periodontal Attachment Loss, Periodontal Pocket, Periodontitis, Prevalence, Self Concept, Self Report, Sensitivity and Specificity, Sex Factors, Smoking, Tooth Mobility, Young Adult