Prediction of ESRD and Death Among People With CKD: The Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Prospective Cohort Study

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Standard

Prediction of ESRD and Death Among People With CKD: The Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Prospective Cohort Study. / Landray, MJ; Emberson, JR; Blackwell, L; Dasgupta, T; Zakeri, R; Morgan, Matthew; Ferro, Charles; Vickery, S; Ayrton, P; Nair, D; Dalton, RN; Lamb, EJ; Baigent, C; Townend, Jonathan; Wheeler, DC.

In: American Journal of Kidney Diseases, Vol. 56, No. 6, 01.12.2010, p. 1082-1094.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Landray, MJ, Emberson, JR, Blackwell, L, Dasgupta, T, Zakeri, R, Morgan, M, Ferro, C, Vickery, S, Ayrton, P, Nair, D, Dalton, RN, Lamb, EJ, Baigent, C, Townend, J & Wheeler, DC 2010, 'Prediction of ESRD and Death Among People With CKD: The Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Prospective Cohort Study', American Journal of Kidney Diseases, vol. 56, no. 6, pp. 1082-1094. https://doi.org/10.1053/j.ajkd.2010.07.016

APA

Landray, MJ., Emberson, JR., Blackwell, L., Dasgupta, T., Zakeri, R., Morgan, M., Ferro, C., Vickery, S., Ayrton, P., Nair, D., Dalton, RN., Lamb, EJ., Baigent, C., Townend, J., & Wheeler, DC. (2010). Prediction of ESRD and Death Among People With CKD: The Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Prospective Cohort Study. American Journal of Kidney Diseases, 56(6), 1082-1094. https://doi.org/10.1053/j.ajkd.2010.07.016

Vancouver

Author

Landray, MJ ; Emberson, JR ; Blackwell, L ; Dasgupta, T ; Zakeri, R ; Morgan, Matthew ; Ferro, Charles ; Vickery, S ; Ayrton, P ; Nair, D ; Dalton, RN ; Lamb, EJ ; Baigent, C ; Townend, Jonathan ; Wheeler, DC. / Prediction of ESRD and Death Among People With CKD: The Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Prospective Cohort Study. In: American Journal of Kidney Diseases. 2010 ; Vol. 56, No. 6. pp. 1082-1094.

Bibtex

@article{5d69826870d74fd5ab32468f09289921,
title = "Prediction of ESRD and Death Among People With CKD: The Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Prospective Cohort Study",
abstract = "Background: Validated prediction scores are required to assess the risks of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Study Design: Prospective cohort study with validation in a separate cohort. Setting & Participants: Cox regression was used to assess the relevance of baseline characteristics to risk of ESRD (mean follow-up, 4.1 years) and death (mean follow-up, 6.0 years) in 382 patients with stages 3-5 CKD not initially on dialysis therapy in the Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Study. Resultant risk prediction equations were tested in a separate cohort of 213 patients with CKD (the East Kent cohort). Factors: 44 baseline characteristics (including 30 blood and urine assays). Outcomes: ESRD and all-cause mortality. Results: In the CRIB cohort, 190 patients reached ESRD (12.1%/y) and 150 died (6.5%/y). Each 30% lower baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate was associated with a 3-fold higher ESRD rate and a 1.3-fold higher death rate. After adjustment for each other, only baseline creatinine level, serum phosphate level, urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and female sex remained strongly (P <0.01) predictive of ESRD. For death, age, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, troponin T level, and cigarette smoking remained strongly predictive of risk. Using these factors to predict outcomes in the East Kent cohort yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ie, C statistic) of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.87-0.96) for ESRD and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.75-0.89) for death. Limitations: Other important factors may have been missed because of limited study power. Conclusions: Simple laboratory measures of kidney and cardiac function plus age, sex, and smoking history can be used to help identify patients with CKD at highest risk of ESRD and death. Larger cohort studies are required to further validate these results. Am J Kidney Dis 56: 1082-1094. (C) 2010 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.",
keywords = "outcomes, Chronic kidney disease, death, risk prediction, end-stage renal disease",
author = "MJ Landray and JR Emberson and L Blackwell and T Dasgupta and R Zakeri and Matthew Morgan and Charles Ferro and S Vickery and P Ayrton and D Nair and RN Dalton and EJ Lamb and C Baigent and Jonathan Townend and DC Wheeler",
year = "2010",
month = dec,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1053/j.ajkd.2010.07.016",
language = "English",
volume = "56",
pages = "1082--1094",
journal = "American Journal of Kidney Diseases",
issn = "0272-6386",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "6",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prediction of ESRD and Death Among People With CKD: The Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Prospective Cohort Study

AU - Landray, MJ

AU - Emberson, JR

AU - Blackwell, L

AU - Dasgupta, T

AU - Zakeri, R

AU - Morgan, Matthew

AU - Ferro, Charles

AU - Vickery, S

AU - Ayrton, P

AU - Nair, D

AU - Dalton, RN

AU - Lamb, EJ

AU - Baigent, C

AU - Townend, Jonathan

AU - Wheeler, DC

PY - 2010/12/1

Y1 - 2010/12/1

N2 - Background: Validated prediction scores are required to assess the risks of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Study Design: Prospective cohort study with validation in a separate cohort. Setting & Participants: Cox regression was used to assess the relevance of baseline characteristics to risk of ESRD (mean follow-up, 4.1 years) and death (mean follow-up, 6.0 years) in 382 patients with stages 3-5 CKD not initially on dialysis therapy in the Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Study. Resultant risk prediction equations were tested in a separate cohort of 213 patients with CKD (the East Kent cohort). Factors: 44 baseline characteristics (including 30 blood and urine assays). Outcomes: ESRD and all-cause mortality. Results: In the CRIB cohort, 190 patients reached ESRD (12.1%/y) and 150 died (6.5%/y). Each 30% lower baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate was associated with a 3-fold higher ESRD rate and a 1.3-fold higher death rate. After adjustment for each other, only baseline creatinine level, serum phosphate level, urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and female sex remained strongly (P <0.01) predictive of ESRD. For death, age, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, troponin T level, and cigarette smoking remained strongly predictive of risk. Using these factors to predict outcomes in the East Kent cohort yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ie, C statistic) of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.87-0.96) for ESRD and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.75-0.89) for death. Limitations: Other important factors may have been missed because of limited study power. Conclusions: Simple laboratory measures of kidney and cardiac function plus age, sex, and smoking history can be used to help identify patients with CKD at highest risk of ESRD and death. Larger cohort studies are required to further validate these results. Am J Kidney Dis 56: 1082-1094. (C) 2010 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

AB - Background: Validated prediction scores are required to assess the risks of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Study Design: Prospective cohort study with validation in a separate cohort. Setting & Participants: Cox regression was used to assess the relevance of baseline characteristics to risk of ESRD (mean follow-up, 4.1 years) and death (mean follow-up, 6.0 years) in 382 patients with stages 3-5 CKD not initially on dialysis therapy in the Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Study. Resultant risk prediction equations were tested in a separate cohort of 213 patients with CKD (the East Kent cohort). Factors: 44 baseline characteristics (including 30 blood and urine assays). Outcomes: ESRD and all-cause mortality. Results: In the CRIB cohort, 190 patients reached ESRD (12.1%/y) and 150 died (6.5%/y). Each 30% lower baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate was associated with a 3-fold higher ESRD rate and a 1.3-fold higher death rate. After adjustment for each other, only baseline creatinine level, serum phosphate level, urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and female sex remained strongly (P <0.01) predictive of ESRD. For death, age, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, troponin T level, and cigarette smoking remained strongly predictive of risk. Using these factors to predict outcomes in the East Kent cohort yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ie, C statistic) of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.87-0.96) for ESRD and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.75-0.89) for death. Limitations: Other important factors may have been missed because of limited study power. Conclusions: Simple laboratory measures of kidney and cardiac function plus age, sex, and smoking history can be used to help identify patients with CKD at highest risk of ESRD and death. Larger cohort studies are required to further validate these results. Am J Kidney Dis 56: 1082-1094. (C) 2010 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

KW - outcomes

KW - Chronic kidney disease

KW - death

KW - risk prediction

KW - end-stage renal disease

U2 - 10.1053/j.ajkd.2010.07.016

DO - 10.1053/j.ajkd.2010.07.016

M3 - Article

C2 - 21035932

VL - 56

SP - 1082

EP - 1094

JO - American Journal of Kidney Diseases

JF - American Journal of Kidney Diseases

SN - 0272-6386

IS - 6

ER -