Popularity equilibrium: testing a general theory of local campaign efficacy

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Standard

Popularity equilibrium : testing a general theory of local campaign efficacy. / Fieldhouse, Edward; Fisher, Justin; Cutts, David.

In: Party Politics, 29.01.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Harvard

APA

Vancouver

Author

Bibtex

@article{1f0a2ed4eb474bba8a6cf92e4632e967,
title = "Popularity equilibrium: testing a general theory of local campaign efficacy",
abstract = "Parties and candidates target campaign resources where they are most likely to pay electoral dividends. At the individual level it has been shown that some individuals are more likely to be persuaded by campaign contacts than others. In a parallel tradition of measuring campaign effectiveness at the macro level, previous research has demonstrated that local candidate campaign effort measured is significantly related to electoral performance. However, while there is evidence suggestive of macro level effects, there is little systematic evidence about the district level conditions under which campaign efforts are most productive. Drawing on extensive data across six UK general elections between 1992 and 2015, we advance a theory of local campaign efficacy and test a general model of popularity equilibrium. We demonstrate that there is acurvilinear relationship between the underlying level of party support in an electoral district and the intensity of the district level campaign – there is a {\textquoteleft}sweet-spot{\textquoteright} for maximizing the returns of campaign effort.",
keywords = "campaign effects, campaigns, elections, predictive model",
author = "Edward Fieldhouse and Justin Fisher and David Cutts",
note = "Fieldhouse, E., Fisher, J., & Cutts, D. (2019). Popularity equilibrium: Testing a general theory of local campaign effectiveness. Party Politics. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068818823443",
year = "2019",
month = jan,
day = "29",
doi = "10.1177/1354068818823443",
language = "English",
journal = "Party Politics",
issn = "1354-0688",
publisher = "SAGE Publications",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Popularity equilibrium

T2 - testing a general theory of local campaign efficacy

AU - Fieldhouse, Edward

AU - Fisher, Justin

AU - Cutts, David

N1 - Fieldhouse, E., Fisher, J., & Cutts, D. (2019). Popularity equilibrium: Testing a general theory of local campaign effectiveness. Party Politics. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068818823443

PY - 2019/1/29

Y1 - 2019/1/29

N2 - Parties and candidates target campaign resources where they are most likely to pay electoral dividends. At the individual level it has been shown that some individuals are more likely to be persuaded by campaign contacts than others. In a parallel tradition of measuring campaign effectiveness at the macro level, previous research has demonstrated that local candidate campaign effort measured is significantly related to electoral performance. However, while there is evidence suggestive of macro level effects, there is little systematic evidence about the district level conditions under which campaign efforts are most productive. Drawing on extensive data across six UK general elections between 1992 and 2015, we advance a theory of local campaign efficacy and test a general model of popularity equilibrium. We demonstrate that there is acurvilinear relationship between the underlying level of party support in an electoral district and the intensity of the district level campaign – there is a ‘sweet-spot’ for maximizing the returns of campaign effort.

AB - Parties and candidates target campaign resources where they are most likely to pay electoral dividends. At the individual level it has been shown that some individuals are more likely to be persuaded by campaign contacts than others. In a parallel tradition of measuring campaign effectiveness at the macro level, previous research has demonstrated that local candidate campaign effort measured is significantly related to electoral performance. However, while there is evidence suggestive of macro level effects, there is little systematic evidence about the district level conditions under which campaign efforts are most productive. Drawing on extensive data across six UK general elections between 1992 and 2015, we advance a theory of local campaign efficacy and test a general model of popularity equilibrium. We demonstrate that there is acurvilinear relationship between the underlying level of party support in an electoral district and the intensity of the district level campaign – there is a ‘sweet-spot’ for maximizing the returns of campaign effort.

KW - campaign effects

KW - campaigns

KW - elections

KW - predictive model

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85060913988&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1177/1354068818823443

DO - 10.1177/1354068818823443

M3 - Article

JO - Party Politics

JF - Party Politics

SN - 1354-0688

ER -