Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Authors

  • Assaad Mrad
  • Gabriel G. Katul
  • Delphis F. Levia
  • Andrew J. Guswa
  • Elizabeth W. Boyer
  • Michael Bruen
  • Darryl E. Carlyle-Moses
  • Rachel Coyte
  • Irena F. Creed
  • Nick Van De Giesen
  • Domenico Grasso
  • Janice E. Hudson
  • Vincent Humphrey
  • Shin'Ichi Iida
  • Robert B. Jackson
  • Tomo'Omi Kumagai
  • Pilar Llorens
  • Beate Michalzik
  • Kazuki Nanko
  • Catherine A. Peters
  • John S. Selker
  • Doerthe Tetzlaff
  • MacIej Zalewski
  • Bridget R. Scanlon

Colleges, School and Institutes

External organisations

  • Duke University
  • University of Delaware
  • Smith College
  • The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA
  • UNIVERSITY COLLEGE DUBLIN
  • Thompson Rivers University
  • University of Saskatchewan
  • Delft University of Technology
  • University of Michigan-Dearborn
  • Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, MC 2520-21
  • Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute
  • Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA
  • Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences The University of Tokyo
  • Spanish Research Council (IDÆA-CSIC)
  • Institut für Geowissenschaften
  • PRINCETON UNIVERSITY
  • Oregon State University
  • Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries
  • Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin
  • Scientific and Cultural Organization
  • University of Lodz
  • Bureau of Economic Geology

Abstract

Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, responding to the linked variations in groundwater pumping and grain production. On a state level, this approach predicted when groundwater withdrawal and grain production peaked and the lag between them. The lags increased with the adoption of efficient irrigation practices and higher recharge rates. Results indicate that, in Texas, withdrawals peaked in 1966, followed by a peak in grain production 9 y later. After better irrigation technologies were adopted, the lag increased to 15 y from 1997 to 2012. In Kansas, where these technologies were employed concurrently with the rise of irrigated grain production, this lag was predicted to be 24 y starting in 1994. In Nebraska, grain production is projected to continue rising through 2050 because of high recharge rates. While Texas and Nebraska had equal irrigated output in 1975, by 2050, it is projected that Nebraska will have almost 10 times the groundwater-based production of Texas.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)26145-26150
Number of pages6
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume117
Issue number42
Publication statusPublished - 20 Oct 2020

Keywords

  • Crop production, Groundwater, Hubbert curve, Ogallala aquifer, Peak water

ASJC Scopus subject areas