On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards

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On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards. / Angus, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, No. 23, e2020GL090446, 16.12.2020.

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@article{e5a169d893bf4181a8da115112c6e662,
title = "On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards",
abstract = "The Atlantic hurricane season and the European windstorm season are found to be negatively correlated in a seasonal forecast model. The probability of extremes occurring in both seasons is compared to the probability of extremes in each season being independent of one another. An above average Atlantic hurricane season is followed by an above average European windstorm season less often than if they were independent, consistent across three intensity measures. The El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation is found to be in the positive (negative) phase when hurricane activity is suppressed (enhanced) and European windstorm activity is enhanced (suppressed). A clear extratropical response in the seasonal forecast model to El Ni{\~n}o/La Ni{\~n}a provides a probable pathway for the observed correlation between the extreme event seasons. This result has important predictability implications for both the actuarial and seasonal forecasting communities.",
keywords = "natural hazard, tropical cyclone, windstorm",
author = "M. Angus and Leckebusch, {G. C.}",
note = "Funding Information: The authors would like to acknowledge that this project was funded by CoreLogic and thank I. Kuhnel, F. Eddounia, F. Chopin, and the anonymous reviewers for valuable input and discussion. Classification of tropical and extratropical events was developed in collaboration with colleagues at the University of Birmingham, K. Ng. Track density function was provided by M. Walz, SwissRe. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2020. The Authors. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",
year = "2020",
month = dec,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1029/2020GL090446",
language = "English",
volume = "47",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "23",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards

AU - Angus, M.

AU - Leckebusch, G. C.

N1 - Funding Information: The authors would like to acknowledge that this project was funded by CoreLogic and thank I. Kuhnel, F. Eddounia, F. Chopin, and the anonymous reviewers for valuable input and discussion. Classification of tropical and extratropical events was developed in collaboration with colleagues at the University of Birmingham, K. Ng. Track density function was provided by M. Walz, SwissRe. Publisher Copyright: ©2020. The Authors. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2020/12/16

Y1 - 2020/12/16

N2 - The Atlantic hurricane season and the European windstorm season are found to be negatively correlated in a seasonal forecast model. The probability of extremes occurring in both seasons is compared to the probability of extremes in each season being independent of one another. An above average Atlantic hurricane season is followed by an above average European windstorm season less often than if they were independent, consistent across three intensity measures. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is found to be in the positive (negative) phase when hurricane activity is suppressed (enhanced) and European windstorm activity is enhanced (suppressed). A clear extratropical response in the seasonal forecast model to El Niño/La Niña provides a probable pathway for the observed correlation between the extreme event seasons. This result has important predictability implications for both the actuarial and seasonal forecasting communities.

AB - The Atlantic hurricane season and the European windstorm season are found to be negatively correlated in a seasonal forecast model. The probability of extremes occurring in both seasons is compared to the probability of extremes in each season being independent of one another. An above average Atlantic hurricane season is followed by an above average European windstorm season less often than if they were independent, consistent across three intensity measures. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is found to be in the positive (negative) phase when hurricane activity is suppressed (enhanced) and European windstorm activity is enhanced (suppressed). A clear extratropical response in the seasonal forecast model to El Niño/La Niña provides a probable pathway for the observed correlation between the extreme event seasons. This result has important predictability implications for both the actuarial and seasonal forecasting communities.

KW - natural hazard

KW - tropical cyclone

KW - windstorm

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85097584190&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2020GL090446

DO - 10.1029/2020GL090446

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85097584190

VL - 47

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 23

M1 - e2020GL090446

ER -