On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards

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Abstract

The Atlantic hurricane season and the European windstorm season are found to be negatively correlated in a seasonal forecast model. The probability of extremes occurring in both seasons is compared to the probability of extremes in each season being independent of one another. An above average Atlantic hurricane season is followed by an above average European windstorm season less often than if they were independent, consistent across three intensity measures. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is found to be in the positive (negative) phase when hurricane activity is suppressed (enhanced) and European windstorm activity is enhanced (suppressed). A clear extratropical response in the seasonal forecast model to El Niño/La Niña provides a probable pathway for the observed correlation between the extreme event seasons. This result has important predictability implications for both the actuarial and seasonal forecasting communities.

Bibliographic note

Funding Information: The authors would like to acknowledge that this project was funded by CoreLogic and thank I. Kuhnel, F. Eddounia, F. Chopin, and the anonymous reviewers for valuable input and discussion. Classification of tropical and extratropical events was developed in collaboration with colleagues at the University of Birmingham, K. Ng. Track density function was provided by M. Walz, SwissRe. Publisher Copyright: ©2020. The Authors. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2020GL090446
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume47
Issue number23
Publication statusPublished - 16 Dec 2020

Keywords

  • natural hazard, tropical cyclone, windstorm