Not loving thy neighbour as thyself: Trade, democracy and military expenditure explanations underlying India-Pakistan rivalry

Syed Murshed, D Mamoon

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    18 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This article analyses whether greater international trade, democracy and reduced military spending lower hostility between India and Pakistan. Conflict between the two nations can be best understood in a multivariate framework where variables such as economic performance, multilateral trade with the rest of the world, bilateral trade, military expenditure, democracy scores and population are simultaneously taken into account. The empirical investigation is based on time series econometrics from 1950-2005, allowing causality to be examined. The results suggest that reduced bilateral trade, greater military expenditure, less development expenditure, lower levels of democracy, lower growth rates and less general trade openness are all conflict enhancing, albeit with lags in some cases. Moreover, there is reverse causality between bilateral trade, militarization and conflict; low levels of bilateral trade and high militarization are conflict enhancing, but conflict also reduces bilateral trade and raises militarization. Economic growth is conflict mitigating, but the reverse is not true. Globalization, or greater openness to trade with the rest of the world, is the most significant driver of a liberal peace, corroborating a modified form of the capitalist peace, rather than a common democratic political orientation suggested by the pure form of the Kantian liberal peace.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)463-476
    Number of pages14
    JournalJournal of Peace Research
    Volume47
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2010

    Keywords

    • liberal peace
    • inter-state conflict
    • India-Pakistan
    • international trade

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