Mind the tail, or risk to fail

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Authors

External organisations

  • Aston University

Abstract

In this study we hypothesise that more frequent extreme negative daily equity returns result in higher tail risk, and this subsequently increases firms’ likelihood of entering financial distress. Specifically, we investigate the role of Value-at-risk and Expected Shortfall in aggravating firms’ likelihood of experiencing financial distress. Our results show that longer horizon (three- and five-year) tail risk measures contributes positively toward firms’ likelihood of experiencing financial distress. Additionally, considering the declining number of bankruptcy filings, and increasing out-of-court negotiations and debt reorganisations, we argue in favour of penalising firms for becoming sufficiently close to bankruptcy that they have questionable going-concern status. Thus, we propose a definition of financial distress contingent upon firms’ earnings, financial expenses, market value and operating cash flow.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)167-185
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of Business Research
Volume99
Early online date27 Feb 2019
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2019

Keywords

  • tail-risk, value-at-risk, downside risk, expected shortfall, bankruptcy, financial distress, Expected shortfall, Tail risk, Downside risk, Bankruptcy, Financial distress, Value-at-risk

ASJC Scopus subject areas