Inlfuence of Satellite Data Uncertainties on the Detection of Externally Forced Climate Change

BD Santer; TML Wigley; GA Meehl; MF Wehner; C Mears; M Schabel; FJ Wentz; Wolfgang Brueggemann

doi:10.1126/science.1082393

Inlfuence of Satellite Data Uncertainties on the Detection of Externally Forced Climate Change

BD Santer, TML Wigley, GA Meehl, MF Wehner, C Mears, M Schabel, FJ Wentz, Wolfgang Brueggemann

Mathematics

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Abstract

Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1degreesC per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A model-predicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1280-1284
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	300
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1082393
Publication status	Published - 1 Jan 2003

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10.1126/science.1082393

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abstract = "Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1degreesC per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A model-predicted {"}fingerprint{"} of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.",

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AU - Santer, BD

AU - Wigley, TML

AU - Meehl, GA

AU - Wehner, MF

AU - Mears, C

AU - Schabel, M

AU - Wentz, FJ

AU - Brueggemann, Wolfgang

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N2 - Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1degreesC per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A model-predicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.

AB - Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1degreesC per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A model-predicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.

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SP - 1280

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JO - Science

JF - Science

ER -

Inlfuence of Satellite Data Uncertainties on the Detection of Externally Forced Climate Change

Abstract

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