Imagining what might be: why children underestimate uncertainty.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Standard

Imagining what might be: why children underestimate uncertainty. / Beck, Sarah; McColgan, KL; Robinson, Elizabeth; Rowley, MG.

In: Journal of Experimental Child Psychology, Vol. 110, No. 4, 01.12.2011, p. 603-10.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

APA

Vancouver

Author

Bibtex

@article{89d2343ba03d44a9b0f6dbf5f7c9dd60,
title = "Imagining what might be: why children underestimate uncertainty.",
abstract = "Children's well-documented tendency to behave as if they know more than they do about uncertain events is reduced under two conditions: when the outcome of a chance event has yet to be determined and when one unknown outcome has occurred but is difficult to imagine. In Experiment 1, in line with published findings, 5- and 6-year-olds (N=61) preferred to guess the unknown location of a known object when the object was in place rather than before its location had been determined. There was no such preference when the object's identity was unknown. In Experiment 2, 29 5- and 6-year-olds were more likely to correctly mark both possible locations when an already hidden object's identity was unknown rather than known. We conclude that children's vivid imaginations can lead them to underestimate uncertainty in a similar way to imagination inflation or fluency effects in adults.",
author = "Sarah Beck and KL McColgan and Elizabeth Robinson and MG Rowley",
year = "2011",
month = dec
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.jecp.2011.06.010",
language = "English",
volume = "110",
pages = "603--10",
journal = "Journal of Experimental Child Psychology",
issn = "0022-0965",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Imagining what might be: why children underestimate uncertainty.

AU - Beck, Sarah

AU - McColgan, KL

AU - Robinson, Elizabeth

AU - Rowley, MG

PY - 2011/12/1

Y1 - 2011/12/1

N2 - Children's well-documented tendency to behave as if they know more than they do about uncertain events is reduced under two conditions: when the outcome of a chance event has yet to be determined and when one unknown outcome has occurred but is difficult to imagine. In Experiment 1, in line with published findings, 5- and 6-year-olds (N=61) preferred to guess the unknown location of a known object when the object was in place rather than before its location had been determined. There was no such preference when the object's identity was unknown. In Experiment 2, 29 5- and 6-year-olds were more likely to correctly mark both possible locations when an already hidden object's identity was unknown rather than known. We conclude that children's vivid imaginations can lead them to underestimate uncertainty in a similar way to imagination inflation or fluency effects in adults.

AB - Children's well-documented tendency to behave as if they know more than they do about uncertain events is reduced under two conditions: when the outcome of a chance event has yet to be determined and when one unknown outcome has occurred but is difficult to imagine. In Experiment 1, in line with published findings, 5- and 6-year-olds (N=61) preferred to guess the unknown location of a known object when the object was in place rather than before its location had been determined. There was no such preference when the object's identity was unknown. In Experiment 2, 29 5- and 6-year-olds were more likely to correctly mark both possible locations when an already hidden object's identity was unknown rather than known. We conclude that children's vivid imaginations can lead them to underestimate uncertainty in a similar way to imagination inflation or fluency effects in adults.

U2 - 10.1016/j.jecp.2011.06.010

DO - 10.1016/j.jecp.2011.06.010

M3 - Article

C2 - 21798553

VL - 110

SP - 603

EP - 610

JO - Journal of Experimental Child Psychology

JF - Journal of Experimental Child Psychology

SN - 0022-0965

IS - 4

ER -