How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Authors

  • Heidi Kreibich
  • Veit Blauhut
  • Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts
  • Laurens M. Bouwer
  • Henny A.J. Van Lanen
  • Alfonso Mejia
  • Marjolein Mens

Colleges, School and Institutes

External organisations

  • Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, GFZ German Centre for GeoSciences
  • University of Freiburg
  • Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
  • Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht - Zentrum für Material- und Küstenforschung GmbH
  • Wageningen University and Research Centre
  • Pennsylvania State University
  • Deltares

Abstract

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-18
Number of pages18
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume64
Issue number1
Early online date23 Jan 2019
Publication statusPublished - 23 Jan 2019

Keywords

  • consecutive hydro-hazards, damage, dynamic risk, hydrological extremes, paired catchments, trend attribution, vulnerability

ASJC Scopus subject areas