Greening of the Earth and its drivers

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


  • Zaichun Zhu
  • Shilong Piao
  • Ranga Myneni
  • Mengtian Huang
  • Zhenzhong Zeng
  • Josep Canadell
  • Philippe Ciais
  • Stephen Sitch
  • Pierre Friedlingstein
  • Almut Arneth
  • Chunxiang Cao
  • Lei Cheng
  • Etsushi Kato
  • Charles Koven
  • Yue Li
  • Xu Lian
  • Yongwen Liu
  • Ronggao Liu
  • Jiafu Mao
  • Yaozhong Pan
  • Sushi Peng
  • Josep Penuelas
  • Benjamin Poulter
  • Benjamin Stocker
  • Nicolas Viovy
  • Xuhui Wang
  • Yingping Wang
  • Zhiqiang Xiao
  • Hui Yang
  • Sonke Zaehle
  • Ning Zeng

Colleges, School and Institutes


Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with consequences for the functioning of the Earth system and provision of ecosystem services1,2. Yet how global vegetation is responding to the changing environment is not well established. Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982–2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States. The regional effects of unexplained factors suggest that the next generation of ecosystem models will need to explore the impacts of forest demography, differences in regional management intensities for cropland and pastures, and other emerging productivity constraints such as phosphorus availability.


Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)791–795
JournalNature Climate Change
Publication statusPublished - 25 Apr 2016