Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection

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Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection. / MacKay, Jonathan Duncan; Barrand, Nicholas; Hannah, David; Krause, Stefan; Jackson, Christopher R.; Everest, Jeremy; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna.

In: The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, No. 7, 06.07.2018, p. 2175-2210.

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MacKay, Jonathan Duncan ; Barrand, Nicholas ; Hannah, David ; Krause, Stefan ; Jackson, Christopher R. ; Everest, Jeremy ; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna. / Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection. In: The Cryosphere. 2018 ; Vol. 12, No. 7. pp. 2175-2210.

Bibtex

@article{baa96209d08c44fa8e0d04f1732655b0,
title = "Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling:: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection",
abstract = "Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or with metrics beyond global summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies in competing model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models to simulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the full range of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Virkis{\'a} River basin in southern Iceland are characterised using 33 signatures derived from observations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertainty of each set of observations is harnessed to define the limits of acceptability (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate the acceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. This framework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt and three run-off-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown to improve acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures but does not always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasising the difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-model prediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt and run-off-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on river discharge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence on discharge hydrograph seasonality and run-off-routing structure on shorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structural configurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population of signatures. The framework outlined here provides a comprehensive and rigorous assessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM process hypotheses. Future melt and run-off model forecasts should seek to diagnose structural model deficiencies and evaluate diagnostic signatures of system behaviour using a LOA framework.",
author = "MacKay, {Jonathan Duncan} and Nicholas Barrand and David Hannah and Stefan Krause and Jackson, {Christopher R.} and Jeremy Everest and Gu{\dh}finna A{\dh}algeirsd{\'o}ttir",
year = "2018",
month = jul,
day = "6",
doi = "10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018",
language = "English",
volume = "12",
pages = "2175--2210",
journal = "The Cryosphere",
issn = "1994-0416",
publisher = "European Geosciences Union",
number = "7",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling:

T2 - application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection

AU - MacKay, Jonathan Duncan

AU - Barrand, Nicholas

AU - Hannah, David

AU - Krause, Stefan

AU - Jackson, Christopher R.

AU - Everest, Jeremy

AU - Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna

PY - 2018/7/6

Y1 - 2018/7/6

N2 - Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or with metrics beyond global summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies in competing model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models to simulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the full range of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Virkisá River basin in southern Iceland are characterised using 33 signatures derived from observations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertainty of each set of observations is harnessed to define the limits of acceptability (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate the acceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. This framework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt and three run-off-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown to improve acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures but does not always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasising the difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-model prediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt and run-off-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on river discharge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence on discharge hydrograph seasonality and run-off-routing structure on shorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structural configurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population of signatures. The framework outlined here provides a comprehensive and rigorous assessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM process hypotheses. Future melt and run-off model forecasts should seek to diagnose structural model deficiencies and evaluate diagnostic signatures of system behaviour using a LOA framework.

AB - Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or with metrics beyond global summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies in competing model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models to simulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the full range of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Virkisá River basin in southern Iceland are characterised using 33 signatures derived from observations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertainty of each set of observations is harnessed to define the limits of acceptability (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate the acceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. This framework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt and three run-off-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown to improve acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures but does not always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasising the difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-model prediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt and run-off-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on river discharge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence on discharge hydrograph seasonality and run-off-routing structure on shorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structural configurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population of signatures. The framework outlined here provides a comprehensive and rigorous assessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM process hypotheses. Future melt and run-off model forecasts should seek to diagnose structural model deficiencies and evaluate diagnostic signatures of system behaviour using a LOA framework.

U2 - 10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018

DO - 10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018

M3 - Article

VL - 12

SP - 2175

EP - 2210

JO - The Cryosphere

JF - The Cryosphere

SN - 1994-0416

IS - 7

ER -