Everettian Confirmation and Sleeping Beauty

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Abstract

Darren Bradley has recently appealed to observation selection effects to argue that conditionalization presents no special problem for Everettian quantum mechanics, and to defend the ‘halfer’ answer to the puzzle of Sleeping Beauty. I assess Bradley’s arguments and conclude that while he is right about confirmation in Everettian quantum mechanics, he is wrong about Sleeping Beauty. This result is doubly good news for Everettians: they can endorse Bayesian confirmation theory without qualification, but they are not thereby compelled to adopt the unpopular ‘halfer’ answer in Sleeping Beauty. These considerations suggest that objective chance is playing an important and under-appreciated role in Sleeping Beauty.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)573-598
Number of pages26
JournalThe British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
Volume65
Issue number3
Early online date30 Aug 2013
Publication statusPublished - 3 Sep 2014