Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1.7 in England

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Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1.7 in England. / CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium ; Beggs, Andrew.

In: Science, Vol. 372, No. 6538, eabg3055, 09.04.2021.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Harvard

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium & Beggs, A 2021, 'Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1.7 in England', Science, vol. 372, no. 6538, eabg3055. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055

APA

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, & Beggs, A. (2021). Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1.7 in England. Science, 372(6538), [eabg3055]. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055

Vancouver

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Beggs A. Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1.7 in England. Science. 2021 Apr 9;372(6538). eabg3055. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055

Author

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group ; COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium ; Beggs, Andrew. / Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1.7 in England. In: Science. 2021 ; Vol. 372, No. 6538.

Bibtex

@article{5010dc57911f42eb9be490c07a2336ca,
title = "Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1.7 in England",
abstract = "INTRODUCTION: Several novel variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, emerged in late 2020. One of these, Variant of Concern (VOC) 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), was first detected in southeast England in September 2020 and spread to become the dominant lineage in the United Kingdom in just a few months. B.1.1.7 has since spread to at least 114 countries worldwide.RATIONALE: The rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 suggests that it transmits more efficiently from person to person than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. This could lead to global surges in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, so there is an urgent need to estimate how much more quickly VOC 202012/01 spreads, whether it is associated with greater or lesser severity of disease, and what control measures might be effective in mitigating its impact. We used social contact and mobility data, as well as demographic indicators linked to SARS-CoV-2 community testing data in England, to assess whether the spread of the new variant may be an artifact of higher baseline transmission rates in certain geographical areas or among specific demographic subpopulations. We then used a series of complementary statistical analyses and mathematical models to estimate the transmissibility of VOC 202012/01 across multiple datasets from the UK, Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States. Finally, we extended a mathematical model that has been extensively used to forecast COVID-19 dynamics in the UK to consider two competing SARS-CoV-2 lineages: VOC 202012/01 and preexisting variants. By fitting this model to a variety of data sources on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths across seven regions of England, we assessed different hypotheses for why the new variant appears to be spreading more quickly, estimated the severity of disease associated with the new variant, and evaluated control measures including vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Combining multiple lines of evidence allowed us to draw robust inferences.RESULTS: The rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 is not an artifact of geographical differences in contact behavior and does not substantially differ by age, sex, or socioeconomic stratum. We estimate that the new variant has a 43 to 90% higher reproduction number (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) than preexisting variants. Similar increases are observed in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States. The most parsimonious explanation for this increase in the reproduction number is that people infected with VOC 202012/01 are more infectious than people infected with a preexisting variant, although there is also reasonable support for a longer infectious period and multiple mechanisms may be operating. Our estimates of severity are uncertain and are consistent with anything from a moderate decrease to a moderate increase in severity (e.g., 32% lower to 20% higher odds of death given infection). Nonetheless, our mathematical model, fitted to data up to 24 December 2020, predicted a large surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in 2021, which has been borne out so far by the observed burden in England up to the end of March 2021. In the absence of stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions and an accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 deaths in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020 in England.CONCLUSION: More than 98% of positive SARS-CoV-2 infections in England are now due to VOC 202012/01, and the spread of this new variant has led to a surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Other countries should prepare for potentially similar outcomes.",
author = "{CMMID COVID-19 Working Group} and {COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium} and Davies, {Nicholas G.} and Sam Abbott and Barnard, {Rosanna C.} and Jarvis, {Christopher I.} and Kucharski, {Adam J.} and Munday, {James D.} and Pearson, {Carl A. B.} and Russell, {Timothy W.} and Tully, {Damien C.} and Washburne, {Alex D.} and Tom Wenseleers and Amy Gimma and William Waites and Wong, {Kerry L. M.} and {Van Zandvoort}, Kevin and Silverman, {Justin D.} and Karla Diaz-ordaz and Ruth Keogh and Eggo, {Rosalind M.} and Sebastian Funk and Mark Jit and Atkins, {Katherine E.} and Edmunds, {W. John} and Andrew Beggs",
year = "2021",
month = apr,
day = "9",
doi = "10.1126/science.abg3055",
language = "English",
volume = "372",
journal = "Science",
issn = "0036-8075",
publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",
number = "6538",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1.7 in England

AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group

AU - COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium

AU - Davies, Nicholas G.

AU - Abbott, Sam

AU - Barnard, Rosanna C.

AU - Jarvis, Christopher I.

AU - Kucharski, Adam J.

AU - Munday, James D.

AU - Pearson, Carl A. B.

AU - Russell, Timothy W.

AU - Tully, Damien C.

AU - Washburne, Alex D.

AU - Wenseleers, Tom

AU - Gimma, Amy

AU - Waites, William

AU - Wong, Kerry L. M.

AU - Van Zandvoort, Kevin

AU - Silverman, Justin D.

AU - Diaz-ordaz, Karla

AU - Keogh, Ruth

AU - Eggo, Rosalind M.

AU - Funk, Sebastian

AU - Jit, Mark

AU - Atkins, Katherine E.

AU - Edmunds, W. John

AU - Beggs, Andrew

PY - 2021/4/9

Y1 - 2021/4/9

N2 - INTRODUCTION: Several novel variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, emerged in late 2020. One of these, Variant of Concern (VOC) 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), was first detected in southeast England in September 2020 and spread to become the dominant lineage in the United Kingdom in just a few months. B.1.1.7 has since spread to at least 114 countries worldwide.RATIONALE: The rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 suggests that it transmits more efficiently from person to person than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. This could lead to global surges in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, so there is an urgent need to estimate how much more quickly VOC 202012/01 spreads, whether it is associated with greater or lesser severity of disease, and what control measures might be effective in mitigating its impact. We used social contact and mobility data, as well as demographic indicators linked to SARS-CoV-2 community testing data in England, to assess whether the spread of the new variant may be an artifact of higher baseline transmission rates in certain geographical areas or among specific demographic subpopulations. We then used a series of complementary statistical analyses and mathematical models to estimate the transmissibility of VOC 202012/01 across multiple datasets from the UK, Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States. Finally, we extended a mathematical model that has been extensively used to forecast COVID-19 dynamics in the UK to consider two competing SARS-CoV-2 lineages: VOC 202012/01 and preexisting variants. By fitting this model to a variety of data sources on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths across seven regions of England, we assessed different hypotheses for why the new variant appears to be spreading more quickly, estimated the severity of disease associated with the new variant, and evaluated control measures including vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Combining multiple lines of evidence allowed us to draw robust inferences.RESULTS: The rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 is not an artifact of geographical differences in contact behavior and does not substantially differ by age, sex, or socioeconomic stratum. We estimate that the new variant has a 43 to 90% higher reproduction number (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) than preexisting variants. Similar increases are observed in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States. The most parsimonious explanation for this increase in the reproduction number is that people infected with VOC 202012/01 are more infectious than people infected with a preexisting variant, although there is also reasonable support for a longer infectious period and multiple mechanisms may be operating. Our estimates of severity are uncertain and are consistent with anything from a moderate decrease to a moderate increase in severity (e.g., 32% lower to 20% higher odds of death given infection). Nonetheless, our mathematical model, fitted to data up to 24 December 2020, predicted a large surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in 2021, which has been borne out so far by the observed burden in England up to the end of March 2021. In the absence of stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions and an accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 deaths in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020 in England.CONCLUSION: More than 98% of positive SARS-CoV-2 infections in England are now due to VOC 202012/01, and the spread of this new variant has led to a surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Other countries should prepare for potentially similar outcomes.

AB - INTRODUCTION: Several novel variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, emerged in late 2020. One of these, Variant of Concern (VOC) 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), was first detected in southeast England in September 2020 and spread to become the dominant lineage in the United Kingdom in just a few months. B.1.1.7 has since spread to at least 114 countries worldwide.RATIONALE: The rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 suggests that it transmits more efficiently from person to person than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. This could lead to global surges in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, so there is an urgent need to estimate how much more quickly VOC 202012/01 spreads, whether it is associated with greater or lesser severity of disease, and what control measures might be effective in mitigating its impact. We used social contact and mobility data, as well as demographic indicators linked to SARS-CoV-2 community testing data in England, to assess whether the spread of the new variant may be an artifact of higher baseline transmission rates in certain geographical areas or among specific demographic subpopulations. We then used a series of complementary statistical analyses and mathematical models to estimate the transmissibility of VOC 202012/01 across multiple datasets from the UK, Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States. Finally, we extended a mathematical model that has been extensively used to forecast COVID-19 dynamics in the UK to consider two competing SARS-CoV-2 lineages: VOC 202012/01 and preexisting variants. By fitting this model to a variety of data sources on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths across seven regions of England, we assessed different hypotheses for why the new variant appears to be spreading more quickly, estimated the severity of disease associated with the new variant, and evaluated control measures including vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Combining multiple lines of evidence allowed us to draw robust inferences.RESULTS: The rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 is not an artifact of geographical differences in contact behavior and does not substantially differ by age, sex, or socioeconomic stratum. We estimate that the new variant has a 43 to 90% higher reproduction number (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) than preexisting variants. Similar increases are observed in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States. The most parsimonious explanation for this increase in the reproduction number is that people infected with VOC 202012/01 are more infectious than people infected with a preexisting variant, although there is also reasonable support for a longer infectious period and multiple mechanisms may be operating. Our estimates of severity are uncertain and are consistent with anything from a moderate decrease to a moderate increase in severity (e.g., 32% lower to 20% higher odds of death given infection). Nonetheless, our mathematical model, fitted to data up to 24 December 2020, predicted a large surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in 2021, which has been borne out so far by the observed burden in England up to the end of March 2021. In the absence of stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions and an accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 deaths in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020 in England.CONCLUSION: More than 98% of positive SARS-CoV-2 infections in England are now due to VOC 202012/01, and the spread of this new variant has led to a surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Other countries should prepare for potentially similar outcomes.

U2 - 10.1126/science.abg3055

DO - 10.1126/science.abg3055

M3 - Article

VL - 372

JO - Science

JF - Science

SN - 0036-8075

IS - 6538

M1 - eabg3055

ER -