Determining the range of predictions of a groundwater model which arises from alternative calibrations

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Determining the range of predictions of a groundwater model which arises from alternative calibrations. / Brooks, Roger J.; Lerner, David N.; Tobias, Andrew M.

In: Water Resources Research, Vol. 30, No. 11, 01.11.1994, p. 2993-3000.

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@article{2c311bc1b34648fda6c2ed56aba17caa,
title = "Determining the range of predictions of a groundwater model which arises from alternative calibrations",
abstract = "A major element in constructing a groundwater model is choosing the parameter values. The traditional approach is to aim for a single best set of values. The parameters used in a model are effective rather than measurable, and this combined with the inherent uncertainties in the modeling process means that there are often many plausible sets of values. A single prediction obtained from a single set of parameter values is not appropriate, but rather the range in predictions from the alternative calibrations should be used. A method is presented for finding the best case and worst case predictions among the plausible parameter sets and is applied to a real case study. Widely different feasible parameter sets were found giving significantly different predictions.",
author = "Brooks, {Roger J.} and Lerner, {David N.} and Tobias, {Andrew M.}",
year = "1994",
month = nov
day = "1",
doi = "10.1029/94WR00947",
language = "English",
volume = "30",
pages = "2993--3000",
journal = "Water Resources Research",
issn = "0043-1397",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "11",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Determining the range of predictions of a groundwater model which arises from alternative calibrations

AU - Brooks, Roger J.

AU - Lerner, David N.

AU - Tobias, Andrew M.

PY - 1994/11/1

Y1 - 1994/11/1

N2 - A major element in constructing a groundwater model is choosing the parameter values. The traditional approach is to aim for a single best set of values. The parameters used in a model are effective rather than measurable, and this combined with the inherent uncertainties in the modeling process means that there are often many plausible sets of values. A single prediction obtained from a single set of parameter values is not appropriate, but rather the range in predictions from the alternative calibrations should be used. A method is presented for finding the best case and worst case predictions among the plausible parameter sets and is applied to a real case study. Widely different feasible parameter sets were found giving significantly different predictions.

AB - A major element in constructing a groundwater model is choosing the parameter values. The traditional approach is to aim for a single best set of values. The parameters used in a model are effective rather than measurable, and this combined with the inherent uncertainties in the modeling process means that there are often many plausible sets of values. A single prediction obtained from a single set of parameter values is not appropriate, but rather the range in predictions from the alternative calibrations should be used. A method is presented for finding the best case and worst case predictions among the plausible parameter sets and is applied to a real case study. Widely different feasible parameter sets were found giving significantly different predictions.

U2 - 10.1029/94WR00947

DO - 10.1029/94WR00947

M3 - Article

VL - 30

SP - 2993

EP - 3000

JO - Water Resources Research

JF - Water Resources Research

SN - 0043-1397

IS - 11

ER -