Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies

Joaquin M.  Prada; Wilma A. Stolk; Emma L.  Davis; Panayiota Touloupou; Swarnali Sharma; Johanna Munoz; Rocio Caja  Rivera; Lisa J Reimer; Edwin  Michael; Sake J. de Vlas; T. Deirdre Hollingsworth

doi:10.1093/trstmh/trab004

Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies

Joaquin M. Prada, Wilma A. Stolk, Emma L. Davis, Panayiota Touloupou, Swarnali Sharma, Johanna Munoz, Rocio Caja Rivera, Lisa J Reimer, Edwin Michael, Sake J. de Vlas, T. Deirdre Hollingsworth

Mathematics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies.

METHODS: We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities.

RESULTS: The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y.

CONCLUSIONS: In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	261-268
Number of pages	8
Journal	Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Volume	115
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trab004
Publication status	Published - 30 Jan 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding: This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation through the NTD Modelling Consortium (grant OPP1184344). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Keywords

COVID-19
acceleration
elimination
lymphatic filariasis
mitigation
modelling

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1093/trstmh/trab004Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

PradaJ2021Delays
Joaquín M Prada, Wilma A Stolk, Emma L Davis, Panayiota Touloupou, Swarnali Sharma, Johanna Muñoz, Rocio M Caja Rivera, Lisa J Reimer, Edwin Michael, Sake J de Vlas, T Déirdre Hollingsworth, Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies, Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Volume 115, Issue 3, March 2021, Pages 261–268, https://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trab004
Final published version, 0.98 MBLicence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

Cite this

Prada, J. M., Stolk, W. A., Davis, E. L., Touloupou, P., Sharma, S., Munoz, J., Rivera, R. C., Reimer, L. J., Michael, E., de Vlas, S. J., & Hollingsworth, T. D. (2021). Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 115(3), 261-268. https://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trab004

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abstract = "BACKGROUND: In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies.METHODS: We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities.RESULTS: The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y.CONCLUSIONS: In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained.",

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author = "Prada, {Joaquin M.} and Stolk, {Wilma A.} and Davis, {Emma L.} and Panayiota Touloupou and Swarnali Sharma and Johanna Munoz and Rivera, {Rocio Caja} and Reimer, {Lisa J} and Edwin Michael and {de Vlas}, {Sake J.} and Hollingsworth, {T. Deirdre}",

note = "Funding: This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation through the NTD Modelling Consortium (grant OPP1184344). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.",

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Prada, JM, Stolk, WA, Davis, EL, Touloupou, P, Sharma, S, Munoz, J, Rivera, RC, Reimer, LJ, Michael, E, de Vlas, SJ & Hollingsworth, TD 2021, 'Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies', Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 115, no. 3, pp. 261-268. https://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trab004

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T1 - Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies

AU - Prada, Joaquin M.

AU - Stolk, Wilma A.

AU - Davis, Emma L.

AU - Touloupou, Panayiota

AU - Sharma, Swarnali

AU - Munoz, Johanna

AU - Rivera, Rocio Caja

AU - Reimer, Lisa J

AU - Michael, Edwin

AU - de Vlas, Sake J.

AU - Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre

N1 - Funding: This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation through the NTD Modelling Consortium (grant OPP1184344). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

PY - 2021/1/30

Y1 - 2021/1/30

N2 - BACKGROUND: In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies.METHODS: We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities.RESULTS: The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y.CONCLUSIONS: In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained.

AB - BACKGROUND: In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies.METHODS: We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities.RESULTS: The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y.CONCLUSIONS: In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained.

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JO - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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ER -

Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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