Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Standard

Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty. / Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Saeed, Fahad; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Wang, Xuhui; Pugh, Thomas; Thierry, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia; Rogelj, Joeri.

In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, No. 6, 064007, 24.05.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Schleussner, C-F, Deryng, D, Müller, C, Elliott, J, Saeed, F, Folberth, C, Liu, W, Wang, X, Pugh, T, Thierry, W, Seneviratne, S & Rogelj, J 2018, 'Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, no. 6, 064007. <http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b/meta>

APA

Schleussner, C-F., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Saeed, F., Folberth, C., Liu, W., Wang, X., Pugh, T., Thierry, W., Seneviratne, S., & Rogelj, J. (2018). Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty. Environmental Research Letters, 13(6), [064007]. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b/meta

Vancouver

Schleussner C-F, Deryng D, Müller C, Elliott J, Saeed F, Folberth C et al. Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty. Environmental Research Letters. 2018 May 24;13(6). 064007.

Author

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ; Deryng, Delphine ; Müller, Christoph ; Elliott, Joshua ; Saeed, Fahad ; Folberth, Christian ; Liu, Wenfeng ; Wang, Xuhui ; Pugh, Thomas ; Thierry, Wim ; Seneviratne, Sonia ; Rogelj, Joeri. / Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2018 ; Vol. 13, No. 6.

Bibtex

@article{2c3a7444122542929a4150013adeb8ce,
title = "Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty",
abstract = "Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to futureemissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5°C and 2°C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially much stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5°C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.",
author = "Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Delphine Deryng and Christoph M{\"u}ller and Joshua Elliott and Fahad Saeed and Christian Folberth and Wenfeng Liu and Xuhui Wang and Thomas Pugh and Wim Thierry and Sonia Seneviratne and Joeri Rogelj",
year = "2018",
month = may,
day = "24",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9326",
publisher = "IOP Publishing",
number = "6",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

AU - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

AU - Deryng, Delphine

AU - Müller, Christoph

AU - Elliott, Joshua

AU - Saeed, Fahad

AU - Folberth, Christian

AU - Liu, Wenfeng

AU - Wang, Xuhui

AU - Pugh, Thomas

AU - Thierry, Wim

AU - Seneviratne, Sonia

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

PY - 2018/5/24

Y1 - 2018/5/24

N2 - Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to futureemissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5°C and 2°C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially much stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5°C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

AB - Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to futureemissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5°C and 2°C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially much stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5°C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

M3 - Article

VL - 13

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 6

M1 - 064007

ER -