Abstract
A methodology to estimate wind and rain effects on the four
main growth crops in the United Kingdom is presented. The method is based
on simulated weather scenarios acting on synthetic plants over a period
of thirty years. The environmental data is generated with the UKCP09
Weather Generator considering future climate scenarios whereas plants are
modelled as simple oscillators characterised by their mass, stiffness and
damping. The joint probability of occurrence of wind and rain are
estimated together with the conditions in which lodging would occur. The
paper shows that the dynamic response of plants varies with season being
the three months of the year the most critical whilst the plants'
performances define crop failure velocities ranging between 4 ms-1 and 23
ms-1 and associated failure rates of 50% and 5% per unitary velocity.
main growth crops in the United Kingdom is presented. The method is based
on simulated weather scenarios acting on synthetic plants over a period
of thirty years. The environmental data is generated with the UKCP09
Weather Generator considering future climate scenarios whereas plants are
modelled as simple oscillators characterised by their mass, stiffness and
damping. The joint probability of occurrence of wind and rain are
estimated together with the conditions in which lodging would occur. The
paper shows that the dynamic response of plants varies with season being
the three months of the year the most critical whilst the plants'
performances define crop failure velocities ranging between 4 ms-1 and 23
ms-1 and associated failure rates of 50% and 5% per unitary velocity.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 265-275 |
| Journal | Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
| Volume | 228-229 |
| Early online date | 25 Jul 2016 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 15 Nov 2016 |
Bibliographical note
The paper presents a methodology to estimate crop lodging on four of the major crops growth in the United Kingdom. It builds on previous research for the parameterisation and modelling of synthetic plants which are then exposed to synthetic wind generated with the UKCP09, a weather simulator that covers any region within the United Kingdom. The research enhances our understanding on the dynamic interactions between crops, wind and rain and provides the means to determine rates of plants’ growth that can help to reduce lodging rates - which to date causes losses of approximately £60 million a year nationwide.Keywords
- crop lodging
- wind simulation
- environmental modelling
- UKCP09 Weather Generator