Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes

BD Santer; MF Wehner; TML Wigley; R Sausen; GA Meehl; KE Taylor; C Ammann; Wolfgang Brueggemann

doi:10.1126/science.1084123

Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes

BD Santer, MF Wehner, TML Wigley, R Sausen, GA Meehl, KE Taylor, C Ammann, Wolfgang Brueggemann

Mathematics

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317 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause-the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere-has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for approximately 80% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ("reanalysis") data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	479-483
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	301
Issue number	5632
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1084123
Publication status	Published - 25 Jul 2003

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abstract = "Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause-the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere-has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for approximately 80% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ({"}reanalysis{"}) data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating.",

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AU - Santer, BD

AU - Wehner, MF

AU - Wigley, TML

AU - Sausen, R

AU - Meehl, GA

AU - Taylor, KE

AU - Ammann, C

AU - Brueggemann, Wolfgang

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Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes

Abstract

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