Climate-induced changes in river flow regimes will alter future bird distributions

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Climate-induced changes in river flow regimes will alter future bird distributions. / Royan, Alexander; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannah, David; Reynolds, Silas; Noble, David G.; Sadler, Jonathan.

In: Ecosphere, Vol. 6, No. 4, 04.2015, p. 1-10.

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Royan, Alexander ; Prudhomme, Christel ; Hannah, David ; Reynolds, Silas ; Noble, David G. ; Sadler, Jonathan. / Climate-induced changes in river flow regimes will alter future bird distributions. In: Ecosphere. 2015 ; Vol. 6, No. 4. pp. 1-10.

Bibtex

@article{11c319d6a8274bef974f5d3760b76383,
title = "Climate-induced changes in river flow regimes will alter future bird distributions",
abstract = "Anthropogenic forcing of the climate is causing an intensification of the global water cycle, leading to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. River flow shapes the ecology of riverine ecosystems and climate-driven changes in river flows are predicted to have severe consequences for riverine species, across all levels of trophic organization. However, understanding species' responses to variation in flow is limited through a lack of quantitative modelling of hydroecological interactions. Here, we construct a Bioclimatic Envelope Model (BEM) ensemble based on a suite of plausible future flow scenarios to show how predicted alterations in flow regimes may alter the distribution of a predatory riverine species, the White-throated Dipper (Cinclus cinclus). Models predicted a gradual diminution of dipper probability of occurrence between present day and 2098. This decline was most rapid in western areas of Great Britain and was principally driven by a projected decrease in flow magnitude and variability around low flows. Climate-induced changes in river flow may, therefore, represent a previously unidentified mechanism by which climate change may mediate range shifts in birds and other riverine biota.",
keywords = "Avian ecology, Biogeography, Climate change, Hydrology, Riparian ecology, River birds, River flows, Spatial analysis",
author = "Alexander Royan and Christel Prudhomme and David Hannah and Silas Reynolds and Noble, {David G.} and Jonathan Sadler",
year = "2015",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1890/ES14-00245.1",
language = "English",
volume = "6",
pages = "1--10",
journal = "Ecosphere",
issn = "2150-8925",
publisher = "Ecological Society of America",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate-induced changes in river flow regimes will alter future bird distributions

AU - Royan, Alexander

AU - Prudhomme, Christel

AU - Hannah, David

AU - Reynolds, Silas

AU - Noble, David G.

AU - Sadler, Jonathan

PY - 2015/4

Y1 - 2015/4

N2 - Anthropogenic forcing of the climate is causing an intensification of the global water cycle, leading to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. River flow shapes the ecology of riverine ecosystems and climate-driven changes in river flows are predicted to have severe consequences for riverine species, across all levels of trophic organization. However, understanding species' responses to variation in flow is limited through a lack of quantitative modelling of hydroecological interactions. Here, we construct a Bioclimatic Envelope Model (BEM) ensemble based on a suite of plausible future flow scenarios to show how predicted alterations in flow regimes may alter the distribution of a predatory riverine species, the White-throated Dipper (Cinclus cinclus). Models predicted a gradual diminution of dipper probability of occurrence between present day and 2098. This decline was most rapid in western areas of Great Britain and was principally driven by a projected decrease in flow magnitude and variability around low flows. Climate-induced changes in river flow may, therefore, represent a previously unidentified mechanism by which climate change may mediate range shifts in birds and other riverine biota.

AB - Anthropogenic forcing of the climate is causing an intensification of the global water cycle, leading to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. River flow shapes the ecology of riverine ecosystems and climate-driven changes in river flows are predicted to have severe consequences for riverine species, across all levels of trophic organization. However, understanding species' responses to variation in flow is limited through a lack of quantitative modelling of hydroecological interactions. Here, we construct a Bioclimatic Envelope Model (BEM) ensemble based on a suite of plausible future flow scenarios to show how predicted alterations in flow regimes may alter the distribution of a predatory riverine species, the White-throated Dipper (Cinclus cinclus). Models predicted a gradual diminution of dipper probability of occurrence between present day and 2098. This decline was most rapid in western areas of Great Britain and was principally driven by a projected decrease in flow magnitude and variability around low flows. Climate-induced changes in river flow may, therefore, represent a previously unidentified mechanism by which climate change may mediate range shifts in birds and other riverine biota.

KW - Avian ecology

KW - Biogeography

KW - Climate change

KW - Hydrology

KW - Riparian ecology

KW - River birds

KW - River flows

KW - Spatial analysis

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84928787700&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1890/ES14-00245.1

DO - 10.1890/ES14-00245.1

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84928787700

VL - 6

SP - 1

EP - 10

JO - Ecosphere

JF - Ecosphere

SN - 2150-8925

IS - 4

ER -