A stochastic model for the strategic assessment of road maintenance

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Abstract

This paper describes the development of a stochastic model for the strategic assessment of road maintenance funding and policy decisions. The algorithms used for simulating pavement deterioration utilise Markov processes, resulting in a transition probability matrix that defines defect progression as opposed to the more familiar regression-type model popular with engineers. The model is designed to be used by road maintenance managers and senior administrators for planning medium- to long-term maintenance investment requirements for local and national road networks. Finally, the application of the model is demonstrated with a case study from central Europe.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)203-211
Number of pages9
JournalInstitution of Civil Engineers. Proceedings. Transport
Volume158
Issue numberTR4
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2005

Keywords

  • risk & probability analysis, roads & highways, management