A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals

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A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals. / Ferguson, Neil M; Mallett, Susan; Jackson, Helen; Roberts, Noel; Ward, Penelope.

In: Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, Vol. 51, No. 4, 04.2003, p. 977-90.

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@article{6a486f4d89cc4cd9bcb17710b472b24b,
title = "A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals",
abstract = "A mathematical model of influenza transmission dynamics is used to simulate the impact of neuraminidase inhibitor therapy on infection rates and transmission of drug-resistant viral strains. The model incorporates population age structure, seasonal transmission, immunity and inclusion of elderly nursing home residents or non-residents. Key parameter values are estimated from epidemiological, clinical and experimental data. The analysis examines the factors determining the population spread of antiviral resistance, and predicts no significant transmission of neuraminidase inhibitor resistant virus. This conclusion is robust even at high therapy levels and under conservative assumptions regarding the likely frequency of transmission of resistant virus. The predicted incidence of resistance following protracted usage reflects primary drug resistance, currently estimated as approximately 2% for neuraminidase inhibitor therapy. It is also shown that until high levels of therapy are attained, early treatment of symptomatic cases is more efficient (per unit of drug) at preventing infections than prophylactic therapy.",
keywords = "Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Algorithms, Antiviral Agents, Drug Resistance, Viral, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Influenza, Human, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Orthomyxoviridae, Population",
author = "Ferguson, {Neil M} and Susan Mallett and Helen Jackson and Noel Roberts and Penelope Ward",
year = "2003",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1093/jac/dkg136",
language = "English",
volume = "51",
pages = "977--90",
journal = "Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy",
issn = "0305-7453",
publisher = "Oxford University Press",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals

AU - Ferguson, Neil M

AU - Mallett, Susan

AU - Jackson, Helen

AU - Roberts, Noel

AU - Ward, Penelope

PY - 2003/4

Y1 - 2003/4

N2 - A mathematical model of influenza transmission dynamics is used to simulate the impact of neuraminidase inhibitor therapy on infection rates and transmission of drug-resistant viral strains. The model incorporates population age structure, seasonal transmission, immunity and inclusion of elderly nursing home residents or non-residents. Key parameter values are estimated from epidemiological, clinical and experimental data. The analysis examines the factors determining the population spread of antiviral resistance, and predicts no significant transmission of neuraminidase inhibitor resistant virus. This conclusion is robust even at high therapy levels and under conservative assumptions regarding the likely frequency of transmission of resistant virus. The predicted incidence of resistance following protracted usage reflects primary drug resistance, currently estimated as approximately 2% for neuraminidase inhibitor therapy. It is also shown that until high levels of therapy are attained, early treatment of symptomatic cases is more efficient (per unit of drug) at preventing infections than prophylactic therapy.

AB - A mathematical model of influenza transmission dynamics is used to simulate the impact of neuraminidase inhibitor therapy on infection rates and transmission of drug-resistant viral strains. The model incorporates population age structure, seasonal transmission, immunity and inclusion of elderly nursing home residents or non-residents. Key parameter values are estimated from epidemiological, clinical and experimental data. The analysis examines the factors determining the population spread of antiviral resistance, and predicts no significant transmission of neuraminidase inhibitor resistant virus. This conclusion is robust even at high therapy levels and under conservative assumptions regarding the likely frequency of transmission of resistant virus. The predicted incidence of resistance following protracted usage reflects primary drug resistance, currently estimated as approximately 2% for neuraminidase inhibitor therapy. It is also shown that until high levels of therapy are attained, early treatment of symptomatic cases is more efficient (per unit of drug) at preventing infections than prophylactic therapy.

KW - Adolescent

KW - Adult

KW - Age Factors

KW - Aged

KW - Algorithms

KW - Antiviral Agents

KW - Drug Resistance, Viral

KW - Female

KW - Forecasting

KW - Humans

KW - Influenza, Human

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Models, Statistical

KW - Orthomyxoviridae

KW - Population

U2 - 10.1093/jac/dkg136

DO - 10.1093/jac/dkg136

M3 - Article

C2 - 12654752

VL - 51

SP - 977

EP - 990

JO - Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy

JF - Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy

SN - 0305-7453

IS - 4

ER -