Abstract
This roadmap examines how the UK retail food sector can decarbonise and rapidly achieve net-zero emissions. As part of this work, we conducted independent reviews of 95 technologies and strategies that retail stores could adopt to reduce carbon emissions and energy consumption.
The analysis focuses on Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which include direct fuel use (electricity and gas) and refrigerant leakage. Scope 3 emissions are excluded, as these originate from companies in the upstream and downstream supply chain.
From the reviews, we identified the technologies and strategies with the greatest potential to reduce emissions in retail stores. Only options with a high Technology Readiness Level (TRL) were considered, as most were already commercially available. For emerging technologies, quantifying carbon savings proved difficult due to uncertain deployment timelines and widely varying performance claims. Results were presented in terms of potential carbon savings (high/medium/low) and payback time.
To project long-term impacts, mathematical modelling was applied from 2025 to 2050. The model accounted for changes due to global warming, evolving electrical grid carbon intensity, and the combined effects of multiple technologies and strategies. Three scenarios were developed for both a 2,100 m² and a 600 m² floor area store:
1. Do Nothing: Considers only external changes such as global warming (based on RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios) and evolving grid carbon intensity.
2. Minor Retrofit: Represents short-term interventions suitable for stores not scheduled for replacement or major refurbishment.
3. Major Retrofit: Involves significant upgrades requiring temporary store closure.
The analysis did not include new-build supermarkets, as most technologies assessed could be implemented during a major retrofit.
The scenarios were modelled across two locations: London and Aberdeen selected for their diverse climatic conditions. Insights from the technology reviews and modelling informed the creation of a comprehensive decarbonisation roadmap through to 2050.
The modelling results indicate potential energy savings of 32–76%. The highest savings were observed in London, with reductions of 76% in the 2,100 m² store and 61% in the 600m2 store, highlighting the strong contribution of solar photovoltaic systems on the overall store energy reduction.
Potential carbon emission reductions ranged from 37–78%. The largest reductions again occurred in London, primarily due to the high solar energy potential.
From the work we recommend 6 major opportunities for supermarkets.
The analysis focuses on Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which include direct fuel use (electricity and gas) and refrigerant leakage. Scope 3 emissions are excluded, as these originate from companies in the upstream and downstream supply chain.
From the reviews, we identified the technologies and strategies with the greatest potential to reduce emissions in retail stores. Only options with a high Technology Readiness Level (TRL) were considered, as most were already commercially available. For emerging technologies, quantifying carbon savings proved difficult due to uncertain deployment timelines and widely varying performance claims. Results were presented in terms of potential carbon savings (high/medium/low) and payback time.
To project long-term impacts, mathematical modelling was applied from 2025 to 2050. The model accounted for changes due to global warming, evolving electrical grid carbon intensity, and the combined effects of multiple technologies and strategies. Three scenarios were developed for both a 2,100 m² and a 600 m² floor area store:
1. Do Nothing: Considers only external changes such as global warming (based on RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios) and evolving grid carbon intensity.
2. Minor Retrofit: Represents short-term interventions suitable for stores not scheduled for replacement or major refurbishment.
3. Major Retrofit: Involves significant upgrades requiring temporary store closure.
The analysis did not include new-build supermarkets, as most technologies assessed could be implemented during a major retrofit.
The scenarios were modelled across two locations: London and Aberdeen selected for their diverse climatic conditions. Insights from the technology reviews and modelling informed the creation of a comprehensive decarbonisation roadmap through to 2050.
The modelling results indicate potential energy savings of 32–76%. The highest savings were observed in London, with reductions of 76% in the 2,100 m² store and 61% in the 600m2 store, highlighting the strong contribution of solar photovoltaic systems on the overall store energy reduction.
Potential carbon emission reductions ranged from 37–78%. The largest reductions again occurred in London, primarily due to the high solar energy potential.
From the work we recommend 6 major opportunities for supermarkets.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Publisher | University of Birmingham |
| Number of pages | 351 |
| Publication status | Published - 2026 |
UN SDGs
This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy -
SDG 13 Climate Action
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